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October 2021 Inflation
November 17, 2021
8:13 am
Vatox
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4.7% for October. I feel November is going to be higher.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/211117/dq211117a-eng.htm

November 17, 2021
8:34 am
AltaRed
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And I think June 2022 vs June 2021 will be <3%. We will still be playing catch up from the lows of 2020 and early 2021 until at least Apr 2022.

I don't really care about Oct 2021 vs Oct 2020 being well over 4%. That is a sign of a recovering economy.

November 17, 2021
8:48 am
Vatox
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AltaRed said
And I think June 2022 vs June 2021 will be <3%. We will still be playing catch up from the lows of 2020 and early 2021 until at least Apr 2022.

I don't really care about Oct 2021 vs Oct 2020 being well over 4%. That is a sign of a recovering economy.  

Recovering economy and playing catch-up don’t change the fact that higher inflation is hurting the majority of Canadians. It’s been many months of consecutive high inflation.

November 17, 2021
9:06 am
Bill
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Until I stop hearing businesses talk about how hard it is to find & retain workers, even with the increased minimum and regular wages (plus incentives like signing/retention bonuses, paid personal days off above vacation time, etc even for unskilled labour positions!) I won't believe inflation is hurting the majority of Canadians.

November 17, 2021
9:07 am
Dean
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Vatox said

4.7% for October. I feel November is going to be higher.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/211117/dq211117a-eng.htm  

WHEW ❗❗

At least it's not as high as in the States (6.2% for October).

Fingers crossed it doesn't go any higher.

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long And Prosper " sf-cool

November 17, 2021
10:11 am
COIN
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Higher inflation mean higher interest rates on your savings?

November 17, 2021
10:23 am
Vatox
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COIN said
Higher inflation mean higher interest rates on your savings?  

Only if BoC raises rates and FIs follow by giving us a bread crumb portion of that action.

November 17, 2021
10:25 am
Vatox
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Dean said

WHEW ❗❗

At least it's not as high as in the States (6.2% for October).

Fingers crossed it doesn't go any higher.

    Dean

  

Yeah for sure!

November 17, 2021
10:25 am
AltaRed
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Vatox said

Recovering economy and playing catch-up don’t change the fact that higher inflation is hurting the majority of Canadians. It’s been many months of consecutive high inflation.  

You continue to miss the point Norman and I have been saying month after month. YOY comparisons with 2020 are extremely poor and highly unrepresentative when 2020 was so severely 'depressed' with small CPI decimal point increases. Annualized CPI in the 2-3% range is where a healthy economy has to be. 2020 was an aberration. 2021 and part of 2022 is catch up. Only get concerned if the YOY numbers continue into summer 2022.

November 17, 2021
10:42 am
Vatox
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AltaRed said

You continue to miss the point Norman and I have been saying month after month. YOY comparisons with 2020 are extremely poor and highly unrepresentative when 2020 was so severely 'depressed' with small CPI decimal point increases. Annualized CPI in the 2-3% range is where a healthy economy has to be. 2020 was an aberration. 2021 and part of 2022 is catch up. Only get concerned if the YOY numbers continue into summer 2022.  

And you continue to miss my point! 53% of Canadians live at the margins of their income. They didn’t save based on the “depressed” economy, and therefore do not have the backup cash to weather the higher costs. If everyone lived as we do, on this site, then your argument would fit. You have to take advantage of the low inflation and deflation in order to soften the current high inflation. You and Norman1 need to stop thinking inside your own little worlds. And remember, the financial health of everyone is very important, your income does not come from your own efforts alone, it comes from everyone consuming goods and services.

November 17, 2021
10:53 am
Vatox
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Bill said
Until I stop hearing businesses talk about how hard it is to find & retain workers, even with the increased minimum and regular wages (plus incentives like signing/retention bonuses, paid personal days off above vacation time, etc even for unskilled labour positions!) I won't believe inflation is hurting the majority of Canadians.  

The majority of the hiring problem is because so many people left their jobs in the first waves of the pandemic and they aren’t coming back because they are retraining and educating for other jobs. That’s why wages are increasing and that’s passed on to prices.

November 17, 2021
1:18 pm
Bill
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I'd have to get some references to believe that 53%, what I'm reading is that maybe a third of Canadians are living week-to-week, the rest have done very well in the last 18 months, bank deposits are WAY up and ready to be spent.

November 17, 2021
1:31 pm
Vatox
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Bill said
I'd have to get some references to believe that 53%, what I'm reading is that maybe a third of Canadians are living week-to-week, the rest have done very well in the last 18 months, bank deposits are WAY up and ready to be spent.  

https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/04/08/2206577/0/en/Over-Half-53-of-Canadians-Within-200-of-Not-Being-Able-to-Cover-Their-Bills-and-Debt-Payments-Up-10-Points-Since-December-Reaching-a-Five-Year-High.html

November 17, 2021
2:12 pm
AltaRed
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Vatox said

And you continue to miss my point! 53% of Canadians live at the margins of their income. They didn’t save based on the “depressed” economy, and therefore do not have the backup cash to weather the higher costs. If everyone lived as we do, on this site, then your argument would fit. You have to take advantage of the low inflation and deflation in order to soften the current high inflation. You and Norman1 need to stop thinking inside your own little worlds. And remember, the financial health of everyone is very important, your income does not come from your own efforts alone, it comes from everyone consuming goods and services.  

So you are saying that 0.7% YOY inflation in Oct 2020 and 4.7% YOY inflation in Oct 2021 is not somehow equivalent to about 2.7% of YOY inflation per year the past 2 years? Is that not about what should be expected if we had not had the 2020 crisis? What is the difference? It is a failure of grade school math by so many people, and especially the media who should know better.

This will be nothing but a squiggle in a 10 year graphic representation of CPI for this decade. Come back then and tell me whether the 'average' CPI for the current decade is not something in the range of 2-3% per year.

November 17, 2021
2:42 pm
Dean
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COIN said

Higher inflation mean higher interest rates on your savings?  

Vatox said

Only if BoC raises rates and FIs follow by giving us a bread crumb portion of that action.  

Sadly, any increase in SA & GIC interest rates will be quickly 'Erased' by
Inflation & Taxes. sf-confused

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long And Prosper " sf-cool

November 17, 2021
2:52 pm
HermanH
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AltaRed said
It is a failure of grade school math by so many people, and especially the media who should know better.

I think that the media know exactly what they are doing. A small number simply is not scary or sensational enough catch eyeballs.

November 17, 2021
4:13 pm
Vatox
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AltaRed said

So you are saying that 0.7% YOY inflation in Oct 2020 and 4.7% YOY inflation in Oct 2021 is not somehow equivalent to about 2.7% of YOY inflation per year the past 2 years? Is that not about what should be expected if we had not had the 2020 crisis? What is the difference? It is a failure of grade school math by so many people, and especially the media who should know better.

This will be nothing but a squiggle in a 10 year graphic representation of CPI for this decade. Come back then and tell me whether the 'average' CPI for the current decade is not something in the range of 2-3% per year.  

As I said before, you and Norman1 are correct, but only for those of us that live within our means and also have ample savings. I’ll give the same, over exaggerated, example as before. If someone lives close to the margins and experiences 0 inflation for 9 years and then 10% inflation in year 10, that’s only 1% per year. But that person is paying 10% more than last year and that’s a serious issue. On the other hand, if I put lots of savings away for the 9 years of 0 inflation, the 10% is no problem.

In other words, you and Norman1 think that there isn’t a problem because you are in the second boat and I’ve pointed out that 53% are in the first boat. Many more are close to joining that first boat too.

November 17, 2021
5:30 pm
Bill
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Vatox, I'd need a better source than the "MNP Consumer Debt Index", mentioned in a report by MNP Ltd, a firm offering services in insolvency, etc, and to which MNP tries to imbue with additional credibility by sourcing it from something they call "Globe Newswire".

November 17, 2021
7:12 pm
Vatox
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November 17, 2021
8:39 pm
AltaRed
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Bill said
Vatox, I'd need a better source than the "MNP Consumer Debt Index", mentioned in a report by MNP Ltd, a firm offering services in insolvency, etc, and to which MNP tries to imbue with additional credibility by sourcing it from something they call "Globe Newswire".  

The reference and source are perfectly fine but the context is wrong and there is something fishy about this. Evidence exists that says savings rate went up with folks stashing CERB et al benefits and nowhere frivolous to spend it (online shopping excepted). So why is it more people since December are now struggling? Because they are foolishly spending it again.

This quote from the link "Despite the concern, six in ten (59%) believe with interest rates so low, now is a good time to buy things that they otherwise might not be able to afford (-2 from December). In addition, nearly half (49%) say they’re more relaxed about carrying debt than they usually are (+2 from December)."

Nothing about inflation at all as Vatox asserts. YCFS.

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