If you read Part 1 of this series, you now have an understanding of what gold is, the different ways investors can gain exposure to it, and some of the benefits and risks that come with owning the precious metal. But knowing how to invest in gold is only half the equation. The next step is to understand some of the whys behind its valuation, and the forces that drive the movements.
Inflation: why gold is often called an inflation hedge
Recall in the article Inflation, the silent investment killer that inflation refers to the increase in the prices of goods and services over time. But as prices rise, the purchasing power of an investor’s money declines, meaning the same dollar today buys less than it did previously. To hedge against inflation, many investors leverage gold because its supply cannot be expanded as easily when compared to a fiat currency. In other words, its supply is limited. While governments and central banks can influence the supply of money through monetary policy, the global supply of gold grows much slower. This has helped gold further maintain its reputation as a long-term storage of wealth; however, it is important to separate perception from reality. While gold is often used as an inflationary hedge, it does not mean its price automatically rises when inflation increases. In fact, there have been many periods where inflation was elevated, and gold underperformed or went sideways.
Gold’s scarcity: why it cannot simply be “printed”
Unlike paper currency, governments cannot create more gold by passing legislation or adjusting monetary policy. Every additional ounce must first be discovered, extracted from the ground, refined, transported, and eventually brought to market. This process can take years and requires significant labour, equipment, energy, and capital. In fact, annual mine production typically adds only 1–2% to the existing global gold supply each year. As a result, the overall supply of gold changes gradually rather than rapidly.
While the market price of gold can still fluctuate significantly over shorter periods, its scarcity makes it much more difficult to dramatically increase the available supply compared to assets that can be produced or issued with greater ease.
So, the question becomes: what causes gold to move up or down in price or to experience periods of lulls?
How is the value of gold determined?
Unlike stocks, which can increase in value as companies grow their earnings, or bonds and GICs that generate interest income, gold does not produce earnings, dividends, or cash flow, at least not naturally. Instead, its value is largely influenced by monetary policy, economic conditions, supply and demand, investor sentiment, inflation, the US dollar, and global macro / geopolitical events. Each factor can impact the value of gold in the short term or long term.

1. Supply and demand
Like most assets, gold’s price is heavily determined by supply and demand. Buyers and sellers trade gold globally across exchanges and over-the-counter markets, causing its price to fluctuate. However, gold’s price dynamics are often far more nuanced.
Unlike commodities that are produced to be consumed, gold acts as both a physical material and a store of value. This creates a price that is driven by expected future demand and perceived value. As a result, gold is influenced by current physical buyers, and by forward-looking expectations. For example, when investors anticipate inflation, recessions, financial instability, or geopolitical conflict, demand for gold often rises, often months or years in advance. Conversely, when economic confidence grows and investors embrace market risk, demand for gold tends to soften or weaken as the price for growth is factored in.
2. Monetary and economic policy
One of the most powerful drivers of gold prices is interest rates. Interest rates are set by central banks, such as the Bank of Canada or the U.S. Federal Reserve. Because gold does not pay interest or dividends, investors weigh the opportunity cost of holding it against income-producing assets like cash, GICs, or government bonds, and even at times against risk-on assets like equities.
For example, imagine having $10,000. If short-term GICs are paying 6% annually, the opportunity cost of holding gold is high, as an investor is giving up $600 a year in income for the possibility of capital appreciation. As a result, rising interest rates often place downward pressure on gold. Conversely, when central banks slash interest rates, that opportunity cost weakens, making gold’s perceived value far more attractive.
In simple terms, rising interest rates places downward pressure on gold prices, while falling interest rates can provide opportunity or upside. Note, the relationship is not perfect, but historically it has been a strong economic force that has influenced its value.
Note: The real interest rate is the nominal interest rate minus the rate of inflation. When real interest rates are negative (inflation is higher than what you can earn on cash or bonds), gold historically performs at its best.
3. Inflation / USD strength
Most of the time, when inflation accelerates, the purchasing power of a fiat currency erodes. Because gold is finite and cannot be printed by a central bank, its nominal price has tended to rise during periods of sustained, elevated inflationary environments.
Now couple the relationship of gold and the USD. Gold is priced in USD, but there is generally an inverse relationship between the USD and gold:
- A stronger USD makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers using other currencies, which can dampen global demand and pull prices down. The result can see fewer central banks purchasing gold (lower demand).
- A weaker USD makes gold cheaper internationally, encouraging global buying and driving the price up. The result can see more central banks purchasing gold (increased demand).
Of course, this relationship is not perfect. There have been periods where both the USD and gold have risen together and declined together such as the immediate short-term period of “Liberation Day” in April of 2025. However, in the long term, the USD declined in the months following, while the value of gold increased above 3500 USD.
For Canadian investors, it is also important to remember that the price of gold is influenced by two variables: the price of gold itself and the CAD/USD exchange rate. This means the value of a gold investment for a Canadian may increase even if the USD price of gold remains unchanged, simply because the CAD/USD relationship — that is, the CAD may have weakened relative to the USD.
4. Investor sentiment
Gold’s value heavily relies on expectations and future predictions rather than quarterly earnings. As a result, market psychology plays a pivotal role in its short-to-medium-term pricing. Investor sentiment can shift quickly based on momentum, speculative positioning in futures, and capital flows into or out of gold ETFs.
A general rule of thumb is that when institutions and retail investors feel confident in broader market growth, appetite for defensive assets generally declines, and capital flows out of gold into riskier, high-opportunity assets. But when market anxiety builds, investor sentiment can flip. Media narratives, technical trading signals, and institutional portfolio re-balancing can create self-reinforcing buying or selling cycles. Couple this with historical buying periods based on cultural demand and the value of gold can move in a variety of directions.
5. Global macro events
During periods of systemic financial stress such as the 2008 financial crisis or the 2020 COVID market crash, investors looked for assets with limited to no counterparty risk. Unlike a stock or corporate bond, where the investment depends on the solvency of a company or issuer, physical gold carries no risk of default. This unique property makes gold one of the primary “safe haven” assets during global economic downturns.
6. Geopolitical events
Geopolitical events such as war, regional conflicts, civil unrest, and international sanctions create unpredictability. A general rule of thumb across all assets is that markets hate uncertainty, and when geopolitical instability threatens energy supplies, trade routes, or currency stability, capital tends to move out of risk-on assets and into safer havens like gold or GICs.
Knowing that gold is sensitive to various factors, it often reacts to geopolitical risk before the event fully unfolds. The result historically sees investors buying gold preemptively as an insurance policy or hedge against further escalation. In the case where the escalation is on and off, gold can decline as market makers and investor sentiment may have priced in future upward potential. For example, short-term geopolitical rallies can sometimes fade once the initial shock wears off, while prolonged geopolitical tension can provide a persistent price floor. This does not mean that gold always rises whenever negative headlines appear. Financial markets are forward-looking, so expectations often matter just as much as the events themselves.
How the value of gold is determined: bringing it all together
If there is one takeaway from how the value and price of gold is determined, it is that there is no single factor for why gold’s price moves and in which direction. Interest rates, inflation, currency movements, supply and demand, central bank, and geopolitical events all interact with one another. Sometimes they reinforce each other, while other times they pull prices in opposite directions.
The hidden costs of owning gold
The market price of gold is only one part of the equation. Depending on how an investor chooses to invest, there can be additional costs associated with buying, storing, insuring, transporting, and eventually selling the asset.
1. Cost of buying and selling: premiums, discounts, and spreads
Before storage or tax enters the picture, there is a cost many first time buyers do not anticipate, and that is the premium and discount applied on buying and selling physical gold. Dealers charge a premium over the spot price to cover fabrication, distribution, insurance, and margin, and they typically buy back below the spot. The gap between those two prices is the spread.
On common bullion products, that round trip or sum of both the premium on the purchase and discount on the sale has typically run in the low single digits as a percentage of the metal’s value. The cost widens on smaller units, as a one gram bar carries a far higher premium per gram than a one ounce bar.
Premiums also move with demand, and have stayed elevated through recent periods of heavy physical buying. In practical terms, gold has to appreciate by the full round trip cost before an investor breaks even.
2. Storage costs: where to keep the gold?
Physical gold has to be stored, and there are generally three options: keeping it at home, using a bank’s safety deposit box, or paying a professional precious metals custodian or vault to store it.
At-home safe
Home safes provide direct access and control, but they create security considerations. They can provide protection from theft, but do not eliminate the risk of a break-in, fire, flood, or other damage(s). The more valuable the gold becomes, the more important those risks can become. Homeowners or tenant insurance policies may have limits on coverage for certain valuables, and precious metals may have specific requirements or exclusions.
Bank safety deposit box
A safety deposit box can provide investors with a secure and controlled location to store physical gold. The Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation (CDIC) covers eligible deposits such as savings accounts and GICs, but does not insure physical items stored in a safety deposit box or losses resulting from theft. This means that if gold or other items are stolen, the investor may be responsible for the loss unless they have separate insurance.
Professional storage
Professional custodian or precious-metals vault can provide additional security and reduce some of the risks associated with keeping large amounts of gold at home or in a safety deposit box. However, professional storage comes with additional costs. Investors may pay annual storage fees, insurance costs, transportation fees, account fees, or other charges depending on the provider and the type of storage arrangement.
3. Carrying costs: the cost of holding an investment
Carrying cost refers to the expenses associated with holding an investment over a period of time. For physical gold, this can include storage, insurance, transportation, and financing. In simple terms, the investment needs to appreciate enough to cover its carrying costs before the investor realizes a positive return.
For example, an investor buys $50,000 worth of physical gold and pays $500 per year for storage and insurance. If the price of gold does not change over the next year, the investor incurred $500 in costs. This means a net return of -$500.
The same concept can apply to financial products, although the costs can look different. An ETF or mutual fund may have a management expense ratio (MER) and associated commissions, while a futures position may involve financing costs, brokerage fees, margin requirements, and additional transactional costs associated with rolling contracts. To generate a positive return, the investment needs to earn enough to cover the costs associated with holding and eventually selling the position.
4. Taxes: the potential tax implications of investing in gold
Taxes are another part of investing that can sometimes get overlooked until it is time to sell, or during income tax season. For Canadian investors, the tax treatment of gold can depend on what is owned, how it is acquired, how it was used, and whether it was in a registered account.
Where tax treatments become sticky is when gold investments such as collectibles, watches, or other items are influenced by craftsmanship, rarity, brand recognition, or personal use. GST/HST should also be considered when purchasing physical gold. Qualifying gold purchases that meet the CRA’s 99.5% purity requirement are generally exempt from GST/HST. Other forms of gold, including most jewellery and lower-purity products, are generally taxable. In the case of ETFs or mutual funds, the underlying fund structure can play a role in taxation, including taxable distributions and gains on the investment.
For example, if an investor purchases $10,000 worth of physical gold and later sells the investment for $20,000, there may be $10,000 taxable gain that must be reported at the end of the income year. Depending on the purity of the gold, they may have also faced the GST or HST (for example, 13% if they live in Ontario). That means the upfront cost on the purchase alone was $11,300. The same concept can apply to an investor who purchases $10,000 in gold ETFs in a non-registered account and later sells those shares for $20,000. They would pay tax on the growth of the investment.
Given the complexities related to tax, it is always recommended to contact a qualified tax professional.
Is gold worth investing in?
After a thorough analysis and deep dive into the commodity, the answer is probably the same answer investors hear far too often… “that it depends…”
Gold can be a useful addition to a diversified portfolio. It can provide exposure to a scarce physical asset, act as a potential store of value, and offer diversification during periods when other investments are under pressure. It can also be a nifty rare item to hold for a form of additional clout or keepsake. But gold is not an omnipotent investment. It has its own set of risks. It does not always rise during inflation, it can experience long periods of stagnation, and it does not generate cash flow. Physical gold can come with storage, insurance, security, and transaction costs. More complex gold investments can introduce leverage, product risk, and counterparty risk.
For someone looking for tangible ownership and a long-term store of value, physical bullion may make sense. For someone looking for convenience and liquidity, an ETF may be more appropriate. For an experienced, higher risk active investor looking to take a tactical position, futures may provide the exposure they are looking for.
At the end of the day, gold is still gold. What changes is the way an investor owns it and perceives its worth to their life and goals. Perhaps the biggest takeaway is that the investment is not just about what is being bought, but understanding what the investor is buying AND if it can help them achieve their goals.

Disclaimers
This article is independently written and not sponsored by any financial institution. The views expressed are solely those of the author(s) based on their research and analysis. The content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions. Reading this article does not create a professional relationship with the author(s) or affiliated organizations. It is not a substitute for personalized financial guidance.
Investing involves risks, including potential loss of principal. Readers are solely responsible for their investment decisions. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Historical or projected returns may not reflect actual future performance. The use of information in this article is at the reader’s own risk. The author and publisher are not responsible for any errors, omissions, or resulting losses/damages.





