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March 6, 2024 - Bank of Canada holds key rate steady at 5%
March 15, 2024
6:06 am
Alexandre
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The United States remained a net crude oil importer in 2022, importing about 6.28 million b/d of crude oil and exporting about 3.58 million b/d.

"Oil and petroleum products explained" - U.S. Energy Information Administration.

March 15, 2024
6:08 am
savemoresaveoften
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https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6#:~:text=The%20resulting%20total%20net%20petroleum,million%20b%2Fd%20in%202022.

This says US is a net exporter of petroleum. I was thinking of what goes into my car :).
And most of the crude import is from Canada, not a dirty country.

March 15, 2024
8:57 am
Alexandre
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When US totally (and not just mostly) stops importing oil from unfriendly countries even for refining it and re-exporting resulting product, then I'll join people saying EV subsidies are no longer necessary and market should decide by itself.

For me, Carbon Tax is less about the environment, because there is no unified agreement on environmental benefits from that tax. But as a reduction of oil consumption, combined with subsidies for electrification of transportation, its benefit is clear: North American energy independence from unfriendly nations.
Same in EU.

Just to note: I do drive gasoline car and heat my house with natural gas, I am not eco-warrior.

March 15, 2024
11:16 am
cgouimet
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Alexandre said
When US totally (and not just mostly) stops importing oil from unfriendly countries even for refining it and re-exporting resulting product, then I'll join people saying EV subsidies are no longer necessary and market should decide by itself.

For me, Carbon Tax is less about the environment, because there is no unified agreement on environmental benefits from that tax. But as a reduction of oil consumption, combined with subsidies for electrification of transportation, its benefit is clear: North American energy independence from unfriendly nations.
Same in EU.

Just to note: I do drive gasoline car and heat my house with natural gas, I am not eco-warrior.  

Actually there is very good concensus on the benefits of visible carbon pricing like our carbon tax. Unfortunately, there is stronger concensus that discrediting the carbon tax is best way to defeat the government.

CGO
March 15, 2024
4:30 pm
Alexandre
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cgouimet said

Actually there is very good concensus on the benefits of visible carbon pricing like our carbon tax.

When it come to environmental benefits that depends who you ask, and that is my point.

My other point: I don't care if either side is right about environmental benefits or lack thereof of Carbon Tax. I do support Carbon Tax for the different reason, which I explained already. I think if that reason were more loudly presented to the public, the public would have supported Carbon Tax stronger.

March 15, 2024
4:48 pm
cgouimet
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Alexandre said

cgouimet said

Actually there is very good concensus on the benefits of visible carbon pricing like our carbon tax.

When it come to environmental benefits that depends who you ask, and that is my point.

My other point: I don't care if either side is right about environmental benefits or lack thereof of Carbon Tax. I do support Carbon Tax for the different reason, which I explained already. I think if that reason were more loudly presented to the public, the public would have supported Carbon Tax stronger.  

I agree

CGO
March 15, 2024
10:37 pm
smayer97
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mordko said
...
I would question if these taxes will impact consumer behaviour. ... 

Correct... not in any meaningful and positive way.

Alexandre said
...
For me, Carbon Tax is less about the environment, because there is no unified agreement on environmental benefits from that tax. But as a reduction of oil consumption, combined with subsidies for electrification of transportation, its benefit is clear: North American energy independence from unfriendly nations.
Same in EU.
...

The first half of your statement is accurate... it is not about the environment... and, there is no unified agreement on benefits, because there is no benefit... at least none that is positively meaningful.

Electrification definitely has its benefits, but not for the reasons commonly put forward, as it carries it own HUGE costs and issues, including foreign dependencies, especially on less than friendly regimes for rare-earth minerals (e.g. ChHina, with over 60% world lithium refining capacity, importing 90% of Australia's exports; which produces over 50% of world lithium), on the backs of slave and child labour (e.g. Congo alone provides 60%+ of the needed cobalt), and so on. It also carries SO MANY false hopes.

As for "fossil fuels", there is no such thing. That oft use naming has become so common place, without enough people questioning it, but has never been proven... pure speculation. Carbon-based fuels? yes.

So what is the real need to push for the reduction of the use of carbon-based fuels? It certainly not for the reasons often put forward:

Anyway, this conversation has sure gone on a rabbit trail...

March 16, 2024
5:21 am
savemoresaveoften
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smayer97 said
As for "fossil fuels", there is no such thing. That oft use naming has become so common place, without enough people questioning it, but has never been proven... pure speculation. Carbon-based fuels? yes.

If fossil to u mean dinosaurs, then you are correct. But thats not the definition of the word fossil.

https://ocean.si.edu/conservation/gulf-oil-spill/what-are-fossil-fuels#:~:text=Fossil%20fuels%20are%20compound%20mixtures,and%20the%20amount%20of%20pressure.

March 16, 2024
5:48 am
Alexandre
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smayer97 said

Alexandre said
...as a reduction of oil consumption, combined with subsidies for electrification of transportation, its benefit is clear: North American energy independence from unfriendly nations.
...

Electrification definitely has its benefits, but not for the reasons commonly put forward, as it carries it own HUGE costs and issues, including foreign dependencies... 

If unfriendly nation cuts oil/petroleum supply to the US, the impact will be felt immediately by everyone.
If supply of batteries, lithium, other rare elements needed for EVs is cut by 100% - the impact will be felt gradually, over the years. You can't buy new EV, you can drive EV you have.

There is a difference between "immediately" and "have months and years to deal with."

on the backs of slave and child labour

There was that Asian country with many garment factories employing underage and child labor, mostly girls. Not China, much smaller one. The country had laws against child labor, but they were not enforced or were bypassed by factory owners bribing local politicians and law enforcement.
Suddenly, a large financial/military package from EU or US was promised. Activists demanded it should not be allowed until child labor laws are enforced. Diplomatic hints were given to the Asian country government that this may become an unwritten condition for release of an aid.

Asian country government finally took it seriously. Many garment factories closed. It became impossible or cost prohibitive to bribe local enforcement. It became not profitable to run factories with adult salaries. They can't employ child labor any longer.

Good news, right?

In about 6-12 months after, foreign journalists visited that country to find what happened next after garment factories went out of business.
Do you want to guess?

March 16, 2024
10:39 am
smayer97
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savemoresaveoften said

smayer97 said
As for "fossil fuels", there is no such thing. That oft use naming has become so common place, without enough people questioning it, but has never been proven... pure speculation. Carbon-based fuels? yes.

If fossil to u mean dinosaurs, then you are correct. But thats not the definition of the word fossil.

https://ocean.si.edu/conservation/gulf-oil-spill/what-are-fossil-fuels#:~:text=Fossil%20fuels%20are%20compound%20mixtures,and%20the%20amount%20of%20pressure.  

No...exactly that... complete fable... and unproven.

March 16, 2024
10:43 am
smayer97
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Alexandre said

If unfriendly nation cuts oil/petroleum supply to the US, the impact will be felt immediately by everyone.
...

The US WAS COMPLETELY energy independent only 3 1/2 yrs ago. It can happen again. Not that other forms of energy should not be pursued but there is no need for anything else to happen. And it can happen in very short order.

March 16, 2024
11:24 am
smayer97
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smayer97 said

No...exactly that... complete fable... and unproven.  

And more food for thought:
https://corbettreport.substack.com/p/climate-change-is-unfalsifiable-woo

March 16, 2024
1:15 pm
RetirEd
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Even further off topic, CBC has been reporting on research into the economics of electric vehicles, and it's not encouraging. By their calculations, one has to do a good bit of driving - about 50-100km/day depending on province - over seven years to come out ahead. And that's only if you have home charging facilities, as public ones are twice the price or more.

Those calculations include governmental subsidies, which go only to first-time buyers. This worsens the already-poor resale value of EVs, as subsequent buyers don't get subsidies. And if you keep an EV for seven years, you've lost a good portion of your range, and if it gets smashed up in the meantime you lose all your upcoming benefit.

Replacing EV batteries is as expensive as buying a used combustion-engine car, and at least for now you may not be able to obtain a new battery for many EVs at all - most are back-ordered and not on the way as the manufacturers are struggling to get enough batteries for new EVs.

One family I know has leased two used EVs (sequentially) and is very happy with them. They charge at home and have combustion-engine cars for backup, using the EV for short commutes and shopping trips.

So, for the moment, EVs are still for the well-heeled homeowner. We need more progress before we can get to 100% EV purchase.

Hmm... I wonder... Can one charge one's EV with home solar panels affordably?

RetirEd

March 16, 2024
1:40 pm
cgouimet
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AltaRed said
BC recently put the screws to Short Term Rentals (STRs) in a number of municipalities where housing stock is particularly tight and vacancy rate is very low, with a view to cause so many folk who bought properties just to 'hotel' them via VRBO or BnB, to capitulate and turn them into proper housing stock.

I agree with this move to potentially put thousands of units (homes, townhouses, condos) back into longer term housing and that is already happening to some extent. Investors who bought properties just to make a killing off STRs are putting them on the market for sale. They are squealing like pigs BUT it serves them right basically trying to run a hotel business with housing stock. If one wants to be in STRs, then make it a proper commercial business with the proper business licenses et al.

The housing mortgage interest rate dilemma is real but overall, it affects a relatively low percentage of properties. About 65-70% of properties are already mortgage free per StatsCan and maybe half of the remaining have low balances. Of the rest, only perhaps 20-30% of the remaining mortgaged homes have renewals coming up each year assuming the bulk of mortgages are 5 year fixed term.

IOW, the percentage of heavily mortgaged homeowners facing renewals each year is relative small.  

I have never done the math but it has been obvious to me there was no financial benefit for us. I could afford to convert both vehicles, be green with new toys and tech but we drive abt 25% of the ON break-even 7 year mileage, both cars together. So, really tough to justify. BTW, that researcher chose a hybrid ...

CGO
March 16, 2024
2:02 pm
savemoresaveoften
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Car thieves AND EV are the reasons car insurance premium are going thru the roof. That’s another negative for EV.
So many stories out there about total write off on an otherwise good condition EV just because it was involved in a minor accident and cuz it ran over something potentially compromising the integrity of the battery, the only way to do a proper fix is full battery replacement, and that can cost more than the value of the car….

March 16, 2024
2:38 pm
cgouimet
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smayer97 said

And more food for thought:
https://corbettreport.substack.com/p/climate-change-is-unfalsifiable-woo  

Does Corbett have anything on correlation VS causality between interest rates and bonds?

CGO
March 16, 2024
9:21 pm
phrank
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RetirEd said
Even further off topic, CBC has been reporting on research into the economics of electric vehicles, and it's not encouraging. By their calculations, one has to do a good bit of driving - about 50-100km/day depending on province - over seven years to come out ahead. And that's only if you have home charging facilities, as public ones are twice the price or more.

Those calculations include governmental subsidies, which go only to first-time buyers. This worsens the already-poor resale value of EVs, as subsequent buyers don't get subsidies. And if you keep an EV for seven years, you've lost a good portion of your range, and if it gets smashed up in the meantime you lose all your upcoming benefit.

Replacing EV batteries is as expensive as buying a used combustion-engine car, and at least for now you may not be able to obtain a new battery for many EVs at all - most are back-ordered and not on the way as the manufacturers are struggling to get enough batteries for new EVs.

One family I know has leased two used EVs (sequentially) and is very happy with them. They charge at home and have combustion-engine cars for backup, using the EV for short commutes and shopping trips.

So, for the moment, EVs are still for the well-heeled homeowner. We need more progress before we can get to 100% EV purchase.

Hmm... I wonder... Can one charge one's EV with home solar panels affordably?  

You could easily recharge an EV at home from solar panels if they made EVs which were efficient and thus required much smaller batteries. These performance SUV EVs and sports or luxury EV cars all with their giant batteries accomplish nothing other than giving the well healed more toys on the backs of tax payers. I think there's some cool tech there, but don't tell me you're saving the planet or money. sf-laugh

An EV that is not fast charged and taken care of will not lose that much range over 7 years unless the battery is defective. Someone buying a used EV won't need to worry about not getting a rebate, because the resale value of EVs is plummeting as people get afraid of battery issues and I think begin to realize these are so tech heavy that cutting edge EV today will be vastly inferiror compared to the tech 5 years from now. IMO EVs are glorified smartphones which are much more of a consumable than a traditional ICE vehicle which was never a good investment either outside of the covid madness.

Also keep in mind that those numbers CBC gives are only valid if you're going to buy a like vehicle in EV or ICE form. What I mean is if you just want an economical car, there are no EV options and actually, there aren't many ICE options anymore either, but there still are some. So if you're in the market for an economical vehicle and not a vehicle like a 3 series, your break even vs an EV is closer to 20 years because you have to substantially upgrade your type of vehicle to get an EV.

I don't drive that much consistently anymore and one thing I really don't like about these current EVs is how much charge they lose when sitting dormant, because they're never really dormant, like most smartphones. Not to mention the loss of energy in the charging process as well, if you let your car sit at the airport while you're on a trip you can come back to a dead battery. Imagine having to go top off your ICE vehicle with gas because you didn't drive it for a few days and you needed to start off on a full tank.

I personally don't buy into the whole EVs are better for the planet narrative and I don't care if climate change is true or not. Why do people need a reason to try to pollute, consume less? Shouldn't that just be stuff you do without persuasion?

I do care that I'm paying tax dollars to subsidize EV manufacturers and buyers when I can't even get a family doctor and am on a 5 year waiting list because mine left to practice privately in another province without notifying any of their patients and so I've been on the phone for multiple hours trying to get some needed care for a family member, but public health is either hanging up on me, sending me to a nurse in the wrong province or refusing all together to take my call! Even if EVs were our saviours as sold by the government, what do I care if I can't get the healthcare my family needs to make it to the future? sf-confused

March 16, 2024
9:26 pm
phrank
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savemoresaveoften said
Car thieves AND EV are the reasons car insurance premium are going thru the roof. That’s another negative for EV.
So many stories out there about total write off on an otherwise good condition EV just because it was involved in a minor accident and cuz it ran over something potentially compromising the integrity of the battery, the only way to do a proper fix is full battery replacement, and that can cost more than the value of the car….  

You got it. When body of frame vehicles went the way of the dodo that was a big problem for repair-ability of cars, now add to that all the electronics and even worse the EVs where the battery actually makes up the integrity of the vehicle acting as part of the frame. Great for manufacturers margin, but horrible for repair-ability to reduce waste. Giga press tech is cool, but not so great for the consumer if there are any issues. Toyota says they will improve this with their next gen vehicles when they embrace casting body parts, but I wouldn't hold my breath.

March 17, 2024
7:22 am
Alexandre
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RetirEd said
Even further off topic, CBC has been reporting on research into the economics of electric vehicles, and it's not encouraging. By their calculations, one has to do a good bit of driving - about 50-100km/day depending on province - over seven years to come out ahead.

Have they compared economics of driving Nissan Micra with the Ford F-Series pickup, which (F-Series) is tops among the most popular cars in Canada in 2023?

If people were buying cars based solely on economics, we would have seen way less F-series sales and way more Micras.

So, for the moment, EVs are still for the well-heeled homeowner.

Aren't we, people frequenting this forum, mostly well-heeled homeowners? sf-smile

We need more progress before we can get to 100% EV purchase.

Norway managed to reach 92% in BEV sales already. Canada and US do not have to follow Norway that rapidly, but the natural progress in automotive industry is shift to EV from combustion engine. That shift will take time, but someone who does not realize it'll happen (sooner or later) is living in the last century.

We are not going back to combustion engine cars, just like we are not going back to cassette players in cars. Like it or not.

March 17, 2024
8:02 am
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cgouimet said

Actually there is very good concensus on the benefits of visible carbon pricing like our carbon tax. Unfortunately, there is stronger concensus that discrediting the carbon tax is best way to defeat the government.  

While you are entitled to your opinion about "very good concensus on the benefits of visible carbon pricing like our carbon tax." The public sentiment, seeing steadily increasing carbon taxes impacting many people disposable income, is not one that favours its continuation. These carbon taxes are meant to provide failed politicians some praise on the world stage, but not from many Canadians who have to decide what life necessities to keep and what to do without. This is not about how well this government sold it to the public, but more about proving any credible "improvement" to reduce climate events just in Canada. The high costs of EVs, lack of commonplace and affordable recharging facilities, the nature of the Canadian cold climate and long distances -- these are all other issues that need credible solutions. There should be other commonsense change of habit measures that the Canadian public can afford in the long term, if not, it is doomed to fail. And BTW, this has to be an election issue. Case in point, Stephan Dion's colossal failure when he proposed carbon taxes.

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