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January 2023 Bank of Canada announcement
January 25, 2023
7:31 am
Bill
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January 25, 2023
9:19 am
Dean
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.
To most of us here, I'm sure that +0.25% is no surprise. It was pretty much written on the proverbial wall, at least a week week ago.

I'm guessing the March 8th announcement will bring us another +0.25%,
... or maybe even Nada%.

As The Stomach Turns,

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long And Prosper " sf-cool

January 25, 2023
10:01 am
Bill
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Alright, Dean, bold contrarian call!

".........Governing Council expects to hold the policy rate at its current level while it assesses the impact of the cumulative interest rate increases......"

January 25, 2023
10:32 am
savemoresaveoften
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Unless inflation upticks a lot for the Jan reading, chances are they will be on hold for Mar.
They basically told the world the default for Mar is no change, unless...

January 25, 2023
12:31 pm
Dean
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.
Remember folks ... March 8th is over 40 days away. A Lot can happen, in even just 10 days !

The BoC can speculate all it wants, but it won't 'Really' know what it's going to do in March ... until it gets there.

Keep yer powder dry sf-wink

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long And Prosper " sf-cool

January 25, 2023
7:59 pm
mechone
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I agree with Dean , if January's numbers are still high I can see them change . Also the feds in the US play a role if they go I believe we go

January 25, 2023
9:18 pm
mordko
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The surprising part was Bank’s forecast that inflation will be down to 3% by mid 23. Let’s hope so…

January 26, 2023
5:09 am
savemoresaveoften
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mordko said
The surprising part was Bank’s forecast that inflation will be down to 3% by mid 23. Let’s hope so…  

Their 3% forecast is what drives the "thinking" that they can pause for the time being and wait for the rate hike effect to work thru the system. Obviously its a "forecast".

January 26, 2023
7:58 am
COIN
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After the January 25th announcement, I know of two institutions that actually dropped their GIC rates. Anybody else seeing the same thing?

January 26, 2023
1:52 pm
Dean
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savemoresaveoften said

Their 3% forecast is what drives the "thinking"
that they can pause for the time being and wait
for the rate hike effect to work thru the system.
Obviously its just a "guess".  

There ... I fixed it for you. sf-wink

O & O

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long And Prosper " sf-cool

January 26, 2023
3:24 pm
savemoresaveoften
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Educated guess = forecast, big difference

January 26, 2023
4:27 pm
mordko
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The forecast/guess is particularly interesting because demand has to tank. We are not going to produce more and increase productivity; thats fairly obvious. Core inflation stayed at the same level for months now. Full employment. What will trigger the sudden change in CPI trends? This tells me the Bank is thinking “a major recession”.

January 26, 2023
4:50 pm
Kirk
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3% percent inflation by mid-2023 sounds more like a hope and a prayer but what do I know?

January 26, 2023
5:02 pm
HermanH
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Don't worry. The 3% is only transitory. sf-wink

January 27, 2023
6:22 am
dommm
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Kirk said
3% percent inflation by mid-2023 sounds more like a hope and a prayer but what do I know?  

From May to Dec the CPI was basically zero so we are on track for a much lower CPI if this trend continues.

cpi.png

January 27, 2023
10:28 am
mordko
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CPI wasn’t “zero”. If you are trying to say that inflation was zero (aka CPI didn’t change), you would be correct but inflation is measured on an annualized basis and there is a good reason for that.

Core inflation remained very high; only the notoriously volatile oil prices helped to reduce the headline number a bit.

January 27, 2023
2:20 pm
dommm
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mordko said
CPI wasn’t “zero”. If you are trying to say that inflation was zero (aka CPI didn’t change), you would be correct but inflation is measured on an annualized basis and there is a good reason for that.

Core inflation remained very high; only the notoriously volatile oil prices helped to reduce the headline number a bit.  

If you care to reread my post I said "From May to Dec the CPI was basically zero". I stand by that & included a chart as confirmation of my statement.

January 27, 2023
5:41 pm
mordko
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I understand you stand by it but its wrong. The numbers at the top of the bars show CPI values from May to December.

January 27, 2023
6:09 pm
Vatox
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dommm said

If you care to reread my post I said "From May to Dec the CPI was basically zero". I stand by that & included a chart as confirmation of my statement.  

I don’t think you understand CPI and inflation. CPI is a value and it’s never zero or anywhere near zero. Inflation can be zero, positive or negative. CPI and year over year inflation haven’t been anywhere near zero. What you are trying to convey here, I think, is that CPI values aren’t increasing as fast and inflation is decelerating. There is no zero.

January 27, 2023
6:10 pm
dommm
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mordko said
I understand you stand by it but its wrong. The numbers at the top of the bars show CPI values from May to December.  

Nothing wrong with my statement & I'm assuming the chart although I did not build the chart.
PS: That chart is from Jan to Dec.

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