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BoC's Next Interest Rate Announcement . . .
September 2, 2023
10:47 am
Dean
Valhalla Mountains, British Columbia
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.
The BoC is scheduled to make their next Interest Rate Announcement, this coming Wednesday (Sept. 6th).

Most of the Pundits out there are predicting an interest rate 'Pause' ... but they've been fooled before. sf-wink

What say you ?

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

September 2, 2023
11:27 am
AltaRed
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I am in the camp of 'pause' given the latest economic data. There is a good chance the economy has flat lined, or possibly marginally into recession.

I also think consumer demand is falling off as more and more mortgages and consumer loans are being renewed at higher rates. New auto loan rates are brutal. This latter process will continue in earnest for at least two more years and I think that will slowly bring CPI down to about 2% target over that period.

September 2, 2023
1:08 pm
The Rock
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I believe they will pause, however I believe there will be one more rate hike this year. Gas prices are rising again as are wages.

September 2, 2023
2:35 pm
Dean
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.
Aa-Ha❗ sf-laugh

It looks like The Rock has been reading BNN lately ... https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/goldman-says-canada-to-skip-now-add-final-rate-hike-in-october-1.1966387

And he's probably right.

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

September 2, 2023
3:45 pm
Rail Baron
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A September pause in Canada, followed by another US Fed. hike at their next meeting on Sep. 20 would set the stage for the BoC to hike again in October.

If that sequence unfolds, late September and early October could be a good time to exchange USD for CAD.

September 2, 2023
5:45 pm
UkrainianDude
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No rate hike this time. So much of so called independent central bank. Lol
B.C.’s premier has sent a letter to the Governor of the Bank of Canada urging him to reconsider a possible interest rate hike in September, as he says “people in B.C. are hurting.”

September 2, 2023
6:26 pm
mordko
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UkrainianDude said
No rate hike this time. So much of so called independent central bank. Lol
B.C.’s premier has sent a letter to the Governor of the Bank of Canada urging him to reconsider a possible interest rate hike in September, as he says “people in B.C. are hurting.”  

Its very unfortunate BC premier did that. BoC will almost certainly pause due economy starting to shrink. The main reason to continue raising is due to BoC losing some credibility when inflation kicked in and the Bank did nothing. Now it has to work extra hard for people to believe its serious about inflation. If politicians start interfering, BoC will have to overcompensate.

September 2, 2023
6:49 pm
savemoresaveoften
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I am not 100% convinced Tiff's hands are tied this month just because the "economists" think he should. If anything, if hes thinking of pause then hike in October, he should be hiking in Septemer. A month of data till October wont do much as we all know where salaries and energy prices have been past couple of months.

September 2, 2023
7:34 pm
AltaRed
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Almost nothing can be done about energy and food prices. With the exception of renewable power, most food and energy is globally priced and influenced only by the value of the loonie. We will have some inflation in those items regardless of interest rates.

September 2, 2023
11:54 pm
RetirEd
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UkrainianDude: The B.C. Premier's opinion has no weight with the Bank of Canada. Neither does the federal Prime Minister's opinion. Premier Eby was speaking for the ears of B.C. home-cravers and homeowners who he hopes will think are on their side and helping.

Home ownership is an excessively favoured investment that will consume all the money out there, since it offers such attractive returns. Real Estate trusts and property corporations will feed the bubble until it pops.

High borrowing charges are one of the few ways the scarce in-demand resources can be rationed. Otherwise, prices would spiral up out of control and people would borrow more and more and make the banks rich. That's what the empty-homes and foreign-owner rules were about. Wish we could do something about the short-term rental rippers.

RetirEd

September 3, 2023
3:40 am
cgouimet
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UkrainianDude said
No rate hike this time. So much of so called independent central bank. Lol
B.C.’s premier has sent a letter to the Governor of the Bank of Canada urging him to reconsider a possible interest rate hike in September, as he says “people in B.C. are hurting.”  

The BC Premier is well aware that his letter to BoC will have no impact but the fact people know he sent it will help his re-election campaign. That's the only reason for and the only possible impact of the letter.

CGO
September 3, 2023
6:37 am
UkrainianDude
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cgouimet said

The BC Premier is well aware that his letter to BoC will have no impact  

RetirEd said
UkrainianDude: The B.C. Premier's opinion has no weight with the Bank of Canada. Neither does the federal Prime Minister's opinion.
 

We will see on Wednesday if it has or hasn’t.

September 3, 2023
6:46 am
cgouimet
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UkrainianDude said

RetirEd said
UkrainianDude: The B.C. Premier's opinion has no weight with the Bank of Canada. Neither does the federal Prime Minister's opinion.
 

We will see on Wednesday if it has or hasn’t.  

LOL! Too funny ...

Just because somebody does what you want them to do doesn't mean they're following your orders.

CGO
September 3, 2023
7:04 am
cgouimet
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mordko said

Its very unfortunate BC premier did that. BoC will almost certainly pause due economy starting to shrink. The main reason to continue raising is due to BoC losing some credibility when inflation kicked in and the Bank did nothing. Now it has to work extra hard for people to believe its serious about inflation. If politicians start interfering, BoC will have to overcompensate.  

In hindsight all Central Banks (US, EU, Canada, etc) waited too long. Had any of them gone sooner, others might have followed if only for currency exchange exchange reasons. And if any of them had gone sooner everyone would have yelled travesty, treason, stupidity, insensitivity etc.

It's much easier to predict the past than the future ...

CGO
September 3, 2023
9:19 am
Dean
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cgouimet said

The BC Premier is well aware that his letter to BoC will have no impact but the fact people know he sent it will help his re-election campaign. That's the only reason for and the only possible impact of the letter.  

    This ⬆ ❗

It's called; 'Politicking' ... the act of attempting to be seen doing something about it, when you're actually really doing Nothing of any consequence at all.

LOL sf-laugh

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

September 3, 2023
9:42 am
gicjunkie
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Dean said

    This ⬆ ❗

It's called; 'Politicking' ... the act of attempting to be seen doing something about it, when you're actually really doing Nothing of any consequence at all.

LOL sf-laugh

    Dean

  

Good one Dean!

I agree with the "do nothing this time" group. The rate should remain as is, for now. Also. I really do think that the BoC has too high an opinion of their influence on the Canadian economy. All they are doing is bankrupting home owners. We will roll along with whatever happens in the world's economic context in general and the US market in particular. Although I am a fan of higher interest rates for GIC purposes, the BoC really got themselves into a pickle by lowering interest rates too much and raising them too quickly. People were very naive to expect their mortage rates to stay at 1%. Conventional wisdom (does that exist any more?) would indicate that the days of reckoning would arrive at some point. Unfortunately it's now.

In truth, these current high interest rates aren't even close to what they were in the early 1980s. In fact, in 2007 the rates were similar to today's rates. Problem is, the cost of housing has skyrocketed.
https://wowa.ca/canada-mortgage-rates-history

September 3, 2023
9:54 am
cgouimet
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gicjunkie said
Good one Dean!

I agree with the "do nothing this time" group. The rate should remain as is, for now. Also. I really do think that the BoC has too high an opinion of their influence on the Canadian economy. All they are doing is bankrupting home owners. We will roll along with whatever happens in the world's economic context in general and the US market in particular. Although I am a fan of higher interest rates for GIC purposes, the BoC really got themselves into a pickle by lowering interest rates too much and raising them too quickly. People were very naive to expect their mortage rates to stay at 1%. Conventional wisdom (does that exist any more?) would indicate that the days of reckoning would arrive at some point. Unfortunately it's now.

In truth, these current high interest rates aren't even close to what they were in the early 1980s. In fact, in 2007 the rates were similar to today's rates. Problem is, the cost of housing has skyrocketed.
https://wowa.ca/canada-mortgage-rates-history  

I'm of the opinion that too many people convinced themselves that more debt was gooder cause rates won't increase. They also convinced themselves that paying more, way more, than asking was the bestest thing to do. The BoC didn't force them to commit more than they could afford but their lenders were really supportive and encouraging them to dig bigger holes.

CGO
September 3, 2023
2:22 pm
Winnie
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I agree, that no rate hike this time.

I think, that BOC will start to cut rate in 1/2 year, early spring 2024 (March - April).

September 3, 2023
5:38 pm
savemoresaveoften
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gicjunkie said
Good one Dean!

I agree with the "do nothing this time" group. The rate should remain as is, for now. Also. I really do think that the BoC has too high an opinion of their influence on the Canadian economy. All they are doing is bankrupting home owners. We will roll along with whatever happens in the world's economic context in general and the US market in particular. Although I am a fan of higher interest rates for GIC purposes, the BoC really got themselves into a pickle by lowering interest rates too much and raising them too quickly. People were very naive to expect their mortage rates to stay at 1%. Conventional wisdom (does that exist any more?) would indicate that the days of reckoning would arrive at some point. Unfortunately it's now.

In truth, these current high interest rates aren't even close to what they were in the early 1980s. In fact, in 2007 the rates were similar to today's rates. Problem is, the cost of housing has skyrocketed.
https://wowa.ca/canada-mortgage-rates-history  

If u remember ur Eco101 (assumed u did take that), then you will recall it’s either fiscal or monetary policy to ‘influence’ the economy. Monetary policy is what Bank of Canada is practicing, nothing wrong with that.
No one put a gun to the homebuyer’s head to take on a mortgage that they can’t afford when refinancing comes. Homebuyer’s pure greed and believe in ‘buy high sell higher’ mentality to blame.
I am glad our central bank is not setting rate policy based on how many home buyers will be in hardship. Central bank sets interest rate high enough with the hope that the economy rebalances itself nicely (aka soft landing). The balancing act almost always fail. A mild economy is really what they wish for so that they can bring inflation down to 2%. Even after they think rate has peak (maybe 3-6 months from now), they will be on the sideline longer than most would think and won’t be in a hurry to cut. Mind you market will start pricing in cuts tho.

September 3, 2023
5:59 pm
suburbs4life
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Winnie said
I agree, that no rate hike this time.

I think, that BOC will start to cut rate in 1/2 year, early spring 2024 (March - April).  

I agree. However, i am hoping rates will not be cut too early in 2024 (maybe by mid year) but will see how bad the recession is come March 2024.

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