Very short term - is there anything worth doing | Page 4 | General comparisons | Discussion forum

Norman1 said
The difference between 1 in 14 million for 6/6 and 1 in 2.3 million for 5/6+Bonus for the 6/49 draws is not material. Those wins are still not going to happen during almost every player's lifetime.

The 5/6 odds is much better at 1 in 55,492. But, the payout in the last Lotto 6/49 draw for having 5/6 was just $914.20.

According to US National Weather Service, the odds of being struck by lightning in one's lifetime is around 1 in 15,300. So, it is very unlikely one will ever have a 6/49 ticket that turns into $914.20 in a lifetime.  

For those who serious thinks winning the lottery is their retirement plan,
they should instead of think being struck by lightning their exit plan.

Norman1 said
The difference between 1 in 14 million for 6/6 and 1 in 2.3 million for 5/6+Bonus for the 6/49 draws is not material. Those wins are still not going to happen during almost every player's lifetime.

The 5/6 odds is much better at 1 in 55,492. But, the payout in the last Lotto 6/49 draw for having 5/6 was just $914.20.

According to US National Weather Service, the odds of being struck by lightning in one's lifetime is around 1 in 15,300. So, it is very unlikely one will ever have a 6/49 ticket that turns into $914.20 in a lifetime.  

One have to be very careful in how stats are presented to them, be it inflation index, unemployment numbers or odds of winning/dying.

Being struck by lightning is 1 in 15K in lifetime, and they assume 80 years lifetime which comes to approximately 1 in 1 million annually.
Single 6/49 lottery ticket odds in winning top prize in a draw are 1 in 14 million, correct.

But! There are two 6/49 draws weekly, so one can participate in about 100 draws annually.
And! One can buy more than one ticket per draw, increasing odds of winning even more.

Adding this all together, for someone who plays lottery regularly odds of striking rich vs. getting struck by lightning are in their favor.

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As a homework exercise, calculate odds of someone winning top 6/49 prize in a lifetime, given the following:

Person plays each draw (two per week)
Person buys 5 tickets for each draw they play
Person only plays after reaching legal age which we will assume to be 20 for that exercise, i.e., with lifespan of 80 years that means for 60 years
Single 6/49 lottery ticket odds in winning top prize in a draw are 1 in 14 million

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When you run numbers, you might start regretting you haven't been playing lottery from the age of 20.

Norman1 said
That works out to be around 1 in 448.7 lifetimes.  

Correct! So, about 1 out 500 to win big. 1 out of 500 people in one's lifetime. That's really not bad.

But there is more!

Assuming top prize is just $5M, this will put winner firmly in top 1% of Canadians by net worth. Meaning, 1 out of 100. Remove from that top 1% those who got money by inheritance, those who had their real estate suddenly appreciated and those who do not have $5M in cash only, and people who left might be 1 out of 500 or even less. 1 out of 1,000 maybe?

Who is left will include those investing in well balanced portfolio over their lifetime and reaping benefits of it.

Now, fun fact: you may have better odds winning 6/49 jackpot over lifetime than getting that same amount of money by investing into well balanced portfolio.

Specifically for conditions I provided: play 100 draws/year, 5 tickets per draw, 5 per ticket - that is $2,500 spent on lottery annually.
For sure odds will be better to win $5M jackpot comparing to investing $2,500 annually in well balanced portfolio and getting that same $5M as ROI.

Your well balanced portfolio could deliver ROI better than bonds and GICs, but if you want higher chances to retire rich - you should play lottery.

Alexandre said

Correct! So, about 1 out 500 to win big. 1 out of 500 people in one's lifetime. That's really not bad.

Yes, it is. It is quite bad. How many lifetimes do you think you would be playing?

When the odds are 1 win in 500 plays, one walks away if one can't play at least 1,000 or 1,500 times. If one can only play once, then the probablility of failure would be 499 in 500 or 99.8%.

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Your well balanced portfolio could deliver ROI better than bonds and GICs, but if you want higher chances to retire rich - you should play lottery.

No, you should not. Doesn't matter what the reward is when the probability of receiving it in a lifetime is 0.22%.

I agree with savemoresaveoften. It is wishful thinking to believe that one is that 1 in 14 million, is one of the 5 in 14 million, or even is that one in 449.

RetirEd said
Alexandre: The expected value of a lottery ticket is negative. Though your chances of winning increase, your chances of coming out ahead DECREASE, as you have paid more for those extra tickets.

If you buy ALL the tickets in a lottery, you will have MAXIMIZED your LOSSES!  

no kidding.
The only correct way to look at a lottery ticket is that it is a charitable donation without a receipt.

RetirEd said
Alexandre:
If you buy ALL the tickets in a lottery, you will have MAXIMIZED your LOSSES!  

...no such thing as all the tickets as they are limitless. The most one can lose is 100 percent of their life savings + all the credit they can muster. That's all 🙂

The tickets are unlimited. But, there's no point for any player to buy more than 13,983,816 tickets in a draw. There are 13,983,816 possible unique tickets with 6 numbers out of the 49.

Multiple $5 million prizes are not awarded when multiple tickets bought match 6/6. Instead, the big prize is split between the matching tickets.