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New Peoples Trust Rates
April 18, 2019
4:42 pm
Loonie
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Peoples is sort of a hybrid - insured by CDIC but privately held.

They have been contrarian in rates in the past. For quite a few years they offered 3% on TFSA savings, which was unheard-of at the time.

Over the last few years, their rates have not been competitive. Now, when everyone else's are plummeting, theirs have perked up again.

April 18, 2019
5:11 pm
Nehpets
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canadian.100 said
Interesting that ....... Luminus (C level?) have some of the best rates, ........  

Problem with Luminus is the level and extent of their extraordinary fees.

Stephen

May 9, 2019
5:52 pm
Bill
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Was speaking with People's CSR today re how long funds transferred in are on hold and thus unavailable re buying a 1-yr GIC, and in the course of the conversation he opined their rates will likely be lower soon. No idea if true or bs.

May 9, 2019
6:55 pm
Doug
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Bill said
Was speaking with People's CSR today re how long funds transferred in are on hold and thus unavailable re buying a 1-yr GIC, and in the course of the conversation he opined their rates will likely be lower soon. No idea if true or bs.  

Peoples Trust might be one of the FIs that offers a rate guarantee of some sort on funds transferred in or renewed. Not sure, but thanks for the tip, Bill.

Is Peoples Trust one of the FIs with which you've already established an account?

To Loonie's point, yes, Peoples Trust is indeed privately held, but very similar to Duo Bank of Canada (formerly Wal-Mart Canada Bank) in that Duo is privately held by an individual investor (who is also Equitable Group's and First National Financial's largest shareholder) and a private equity firm. Peoples Trust is owned by Peoples Group that, in turn, is owned by the Triple 5 Group, which is like the Jim Pattison Group of Alberta (i.e., Ghermezian family owns West Edmonton Mall and the Mall of America, among other assets).

A similar example, which I sometimes get confused with Peoples actually, would be Peace Hills Trust, which is wholly-owned by the Samson Cree First Nation.

Cheers,
Doug

May 10, 2019
4:29 am
Loonie
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It only makes sense that Peoples' rates will fall as they are about the highest in most categories right now. That's a kind of "hot seat" position - none of 'em wants to be there any more as they race each other to the bottom.

May 10, 2019
8:23 am
Doug
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Loonie said
It only makes sense that Peoples' rates will fall as they are about the highest in most categories right now. That's a kind of "hot seat" position - none of 'em wants to be there any more as they race each other to the bottom.  

True, unless this is partially either (a) a play for market share (as may be the case with Oaken and Motive raising GIC rates) or (b) a case of them needing deposits to boost their regulatory capital due to higher-than-average loan book growth.

Cheers,
Doug

May 13, 2019
2:23 pm
Briguy
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canadian.100 said

Does anyone know if the 15 month term GIC is compounded annually, ie interest at the end of the first year or does one get a straight 3.1% at the very end of the 15 month term? Perhaps I missed it, but did not find that info on the website.  

It's compounded- you get interest at the end of the first year that gets added to the GIC and then you earn 3.1% on that too.

FYI- this 3.1% 15 month is only for non registered accounts.

May 13, 2019
5:29 pm
Briguy
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Bill said
Was speaking with People's CSR today re how long funds transferred in are on hold and thus unavailable re buying a 1-yr GIC, and in the course of the conversation he opined their rates will likely be lower soon. No idea if true or bs.  

If you call them they will release the funds immediately and you can buy a GIC. eg. I pulled some money on Friday night after business hours from my Scotia account to my Peoples account, it showed on Peoples today (Monday), but still didn't show as being withdrawn from my Scotia account yet. I phoned Peoples and they released it and I bought a GIC today.

May 13, 2019
6:05 pm
Bill
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Thanks Briguy, yes, that's exactly what I was told and what I did too.

May 23, 2019
4:17 am
Saver-Mom
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Loonie said
It only makes sense that Peoples' rates will fall as they are about the highest in most categories right now. That's a kind of "hot seat" position - none of 'em wants to be there any more as they race each other to the bottom.  

Loonie, you called it again.
Was about to transfer a pile of cash here but GICs maturing shortly have missed the window. Please, oracle, tell us more. Stock market set to plunge today too, so will they drop GICs across the board again?

May 23, 2019
6:26 am
gicjunkie
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Saver-Mom said

Loonie, you called it again.
Was about to transfer a pile of cash here but GICs maturing shortly have missed the window. Please, oracle, tell us more. Stock market set to plunge today too, so will they drop GICs across the board again?  

Bank of Canada's Stephen Poloz stated this past week that he expects the economy to get over this flat spot in the not too distant future and rates will begin to rise again. There was no mention of the intention to lower interest rates further. Maybe these comments will end the bank rate drops for now.

June 28, 2019
11:14 am
GR
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GIC Rates Dropped:

Non-Registered
15 month 2.65%
1 year 2.60%
2 year 2.70%
3 year 2.80%
4 year 2.90%
5 year 3.05%

RRSP or TFSA GIC
1 year 2.60%
2 year 2.70%
3 year 2.80%
4 year 2.90%
5 year 3.05%

June 28, 2019
12:18 pm
Loonie
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I am perhaps fortunate in that I'm not needing any GICs until at least the Fall, and can dawdle a bit then too. I doubled up in the Spring so that I wouldn't be vulnerable in the Fall. The only real competition right now seems to be in savings promos. However, it's always worthwhile to ask if an FI will hold an advertised rate for you for a week or two until you can get money transferred in. Some will do so, and most will for registered funds..

Poloz may be right that it's short term pain. However, we've been told that story before, so I don't really trust it. During the long dry spell prior to late 2018, we were told annually, if not more frequently, that rates were going to rise within the year or less, but this always got postponed as not-quite-yet. As recently as six months ago, we were still expecting more rate rises this year.

At the moment, I'm not as optimistic as Poloz. There are too many unpleasant factors in the wind. China, US Fed, Fall election, for starters.
But, in truth, none of us knows. Win some, lose some.

June 28, 2019
3:26 pm
Doug
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Loonie said
I am perhaps fortunate in that I'm not needing any GICs until at least the Fall, and can dawdle a bit then too. I doubled up in the Spring so that I wouldn't be vulnerable in the Fall. The only real competition right now seems to be in savings promos. However, it's always worthwhile to ask if an FI will hold an advertised rate for you for a week or two until you can get money transferred in. Some will do so, and most will for registered funds..

Poloz may be right that it's short term pain. However, we've been told that story before, so I don't really trust it. During the long dry spell prior to late 2018, we were told annually, if not more frequently, that rates were going to rise within the year or less, but this always got postponed as not-quite-yet. As recently as six months ago, we were still expecting more rate rises this year.

At the moment, I'm not as optimistic as Poloz. There are too many unpleasant factors in the wind. China, US Fed, Fall election, for starters.
But, in truth, none of us knows. Win some, lose some.  

The BoC is between a rock and a hard place. They don't want to cut interest rates, for the sake of stimulating the mortgage market, but they also know that they inevitably will have to cut rates in concert with the U.S. Federal Reserve, which is widely seen cutting rates at least 25 bps next month and, I suspect, in either October or December as well. In fact, I am predicting 3-4 Fed rate cuts, each 25 bps, between now and January 1, 2021. Concurrent with that move, I expect 3 BoC rate cuts, at a minimum, unless they go a full 50 bps in one swoop. Otherwise, they risk making the Canadian dollar appreciate against the U.S. dollar at a time when tariffs and demographics are already challenging the economy.

In short, I predict the top 5 year GIC rate to be 2.5% and the current top 5 year GIC rate to be at or around 2% by the end of next year. Top HISA rate is likely to be 2% by the end of next year, with the possibility that Motive's Savvy Savings may be the outlier, with only a modest 30 bps drop to 2.5% next year.

The "Big 5" banks will likely cut their HISA rates to 0% or just above 0% (no more than 0.25-0.50% for their highest rate savings accounts). Somewhat of an outlier prediction, but TD Canada Trust, flush with more deposits than it knows what to do with, may try and "test the waters" by instituting negative deposit rates on select accounts (-0.01 to -0.05%), to try and get customers into locked-in GIC terms or mutual funds. Their HISA rates and even their GIC rates are already rock bottom, so it wouldn't be completely unprecedented on a global scale, though would be a first in Canada. On $100,000, that'd only explicitly cost a person $10/year to have their funds on deposit, so people may not even notice. To a bank with several hundred billion in deposits, most of it HISAs, that's an extra $10 million to the bottom line on $100 billion in deposits, assuming only -0.01% negative rate.

Cheers,
Doug

June 29, 2019
12:26 pm
Saver-Mom
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Wow, Doug, those are pretty dire and specific predictions!
I hope you are wrong, but I think I will go look at locking in some HISA money into GICs now...

June 29, 2019
12:49 pm
Briguy
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Trump and Xi agreed to re-open trade talks today at the G20 summit in Osaka,Japan. If the trade talks go well the US stock market will rise and there will be no need for interest rate cuts. So, there's still lots of variables in play over interest rates in US for the rest of this year. But, you could be right Doug, only time will tell.

June 29, 2019
5:31 pm
Doug
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Briguy said
Trump and Xi agreed to re-open trade talks today at the G20 summit in Osaka,Japan. If the trade talks go well the US stock market will rise and there will be no need for interest rate cuts. So, there's still lots of variables in play over interest rates in US for the rest of this year. But, you could be right Doug, only time will tell.  

I may well be wrong on the BoC rate decreases, but I certainly don't see any interest rate increases. In any case, I certainly would favour locking in any money you don't need in the short term into an appropriate GIC. Rates may well have bottomed (kind of doubt it), but I don't see an interest rate hiking cycle to resume. Even before the geopolitical and tariff concerns, the BoC was likely within 0.25-0.50% of the hiking cycle based on Canada's domestic economic capacity. Increasing more than that would've precipitated a recession, I'm quite certain.

Cheers,
Doug

June 29, 2019
10:15 pm
Bud
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Douglas if as u say 0 rates there will be some serious rrif withdraw tax savings to tide ya over

July 25, 2019
12:51 pm
Brimleychen
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Just check the GIC rates on Peoples Trust, in comparison with the GIC rate table in this forum: 1 / 4 / 5 years go down, and 2 / 3 years go up.

Long Term:
15 month 2.65%
1 year 2.55%
2 year 2.75%
3 year 2.85%
4 year 2.90%
5 year 3.00%

August 1, 2019
4:25 pm
GR
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Peoples Trust 15 month GIC increased to promo rate of 3% p.a.

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