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Higher Oaken Rates, Again ...
June 8, 2022
10:11 am
lifeonanisland
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Dean said
.
I'm seeing the new 18mo GIC @ 4.00% of particular interest, as well as the new 2yr GIC @ 4.30%.

I'll give them both some thought ... but I may still stay Short for now, as I expect the near future to get even 'Greener'.

    Dean

  

Going to stay short myself...there is more chatter about the next hike being .75 percent. Inflation numbers coming shortly...could be a good harbinger of what lies ahead.

June 8, 2022
11:26 am
agit
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COIN said

How long will you stay short? You are losing money waiting.  

Correct me if i am wrong

For example losing 1% for 4 months, will take us 4 months to recover into one year gic and then 8 months gaining. net profit 8 months higher rate. with 6 months you will break even again using the one year gic.

example
now gic 100k at 3% = 3k
now hisa 100k at 2%
later gic 100k at 4%

100k at 2% for 4 months = 668.49
100k at 4% for 8 months = 2663.01
2663.01+668.29 = 3331.30

June 8, 2022
12:06 pm
lifeonanisland
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In my case, seeking to lock in at much longer terms than one year, thus the wait and see. The risk I see is that one and two year terms might mature just as political parties in the US and Canada resume pressuring central banks to start easing central rates as they deal with recession/house market cratering, which seems to be more and more likely.

June 8, 2022
12:20 pm
KamWest
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Personally I am doing a 3 month term at 3.05 with Hubert.

My last term was 2.05% which was respectable at the time and now 3 months later I have 3.05%

So for me the trend is clear, I will take the 3.05% for 3 months instead of the 1.7% in the savings account and hopefully in 3 more months I get another nice increase.

So it's basically the best of both worlds.
The only thing is Hubert has not announced an increase recently so I am hanging on until Monday to lock in for a new 3 month term in case there is another announcement.

The 18 month term from Oaken at 4% will probably be my new 3 month term rate at Hubert when it becomes due.

I will lock in long term only when I see the first downturns because each percent for me makes a 30k interest difference per year on that GIC.

June 8, 2022
12:49 pm
lifeonanisland
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KamWest said
Personally I am doing a 3 month term at 3.05 with Hubert.

My last term was 2.05% which was respectable at the time and now 3 months later I have 3.05%

So for me the trend is clear, I will take the 3.05% for 3 months instead of the 1.7% in the savings account and hopefully in 3 more months I get another nice increase.

So it's basically the best of both worlds.
The only thing is Hubert has not announced an increase recently so I am hanging on until Monday to lock in for a new 3 month term in case there is another announcement.

The 18 month term from Oaken at 4% will probably be my new 3 month term rate at Hubert when it becomes due.

I will lock in long term only when I see the first downturns because each percent for me makes a 30k interest difference per year on that GIC.  

While I wait, I am making roughly 2.25 percent at the moment in shorter terms GICs. I would love to take advantage of the higher rates on offer, but in my case, most holdings are within RRSPs and TFSAs....all of which are a pain in the ass to move around freely.

June 8, 2022
2:28 pm
COIN
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lifeonanisland said
The risk I see is that one and two year terms might mature just as political parties in the US and Canada resume pressuring central banks to start easing central rates as they deal with recession/house market cratering, which seems to be more and more likely.  

2024 is a U.S. (maybe also Canadian) election year. What does that mean? What does history say?

On the other hand, 2022 is U.S. mid-terms. What does that mean?

June 8, 2022
3:03 pm
Bill
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KamWest, on your GIC with Hubert you say every percent difference is $30k interest per year so you have a single GIC there for $3 million. I've never heard of anyone having such a large single GIC at one institution, obviously you're very comfy with the Manitoba insurance scheme, yes?

June 8, 2022
3:35 pm
KamWest
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I usually run two GIC's at Hubert and my portfolio is pretty spread out over numerous financial institutions and investments.

I tend to put the amount into one institution that I can afford to lose without affecting my lifestyle in a dramatic way.

June 8, 2022
3:50 pm
Bill
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Good approach to limit risk to what you can afford to lose, at least later in life for sure. I've always wondered how deep the Manitoba insurance scheme would be in the event of a major global event, seems to me based on this site that there would be a fair number of depositors outside that small-population province that would be looking to be made whole. Personally I'm more comfortable exceeding insurable limits in too-big-to-fail institutions, i.e. big banks, that the federal gov't would try to prop up, though of course the returns on their instruments is lower than at Hubert.

June 8, 2022
4:50 pm
savemoresaveoften
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Bill said
KamWest, on your GIC with Hubert you say every percent difference is $30k interest per year so you have a single GIC there for $3 million. I've never heard of anyone having such a large single GIC at one institution, obviously you're very comfy with the Manitoba insurance scheme, yes?  

Yeah that does not sound like prudent risk management. But then again $3mm may be a lot to me, it may be a dime in the bucket for another.

June 8, 2022
6:56 pm
agit
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I’ve deposited seven figures with Tangerine, simplii, and the big 5 Canadian Banks without losing sleep over it because if any one of the these big 5 banks were to fail GOD BLESS US ALL then it doesn't matter where the money is the CAD $ will be worth $0.10 USD.

June 9, 2022
3:34 am
RetirEd
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COIN: Historically, US general elections tend to see low interest rates. Not as much for mid-terms, though.
RetirEd

RetirEd

June 9, 2022
6:41 am
KamWest
Toronto
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KamWest said

The only thing is Hubert has not announced an increase recently so I am hanging on until Monday to lock in for a new 3 month term in case there is another announcement.

 

The new rates 3.10% is here today so I will lock in for 3 months and by the time I get back the rates will hopefully be near 4% for a 3 month term.

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