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Email this10:58 pm
April 6, 2013
Offline
The monthly performance numbers indicate that $100,000 invested in VDY at the start of 2020 would have dipped to just under $81,000 by end of March before recovering to $98,853.78 by the end of the year:
| 2020 | Change | Month End | Cumulative |
| Jan | +2.26% | $102,260.00 | 2.26% |
| Feb | -5.76% | $96,369.82 | -3.63% |
| Mar | -16.02% | $80,931.38 | -19.07% |
| Apr | +3.13% | $83,464.53 | -16.54% |
| May | +1.51% | $84,724.84 | -15.28% |
| Jun | +0.62% | $85,250.14 | -14.75% |
| Jul | +1.11% | $86,196.42 | -13.80% |
| Aug | +5.53% | $90,963.08 | -9.04% |
| Sep | -4.89% | $86,514.98 | -13.49% |
| Oct | -1.70% | $85,044.23 | -14.96% |
| Nov | +15.11% | $97,894.41 | -2.11% |
| Dec | +0.98% | $98,853.78 | -1.15% |
7:37 am
October 27, 2013
Online
Okay, but why do you cherry pick THE one "down" year in the last 10 years posted on the Vanguard VDY website? Why not post VDY's monthly numbers for each of the years 2013 through 2026 YTD for a more relevant, less biased perspective? Why not look at VDY's multi-year returns, of say 3 year, or 5 year or 10 year rolling periods as posted on the Vanguard site?
It is important to know equity returns are volatile on a daily, monthly or annual basis but that is not the basis of investing and you know that yourself. Accepting volatility is the 'equity risk premium' over a bond or a GIC. One cannot make worthwhile positive real, after tax, returns without taking on risk/volatility.
I have been retired since early 2006. My own portfolio took:
1. a -35% hit for the year 2008 in the depths of the GFC, but bouncing back to a 20% gain in 2009 and fully recovering to beginning 2008 value by the end of 2012 (5 years)
2. about a 30% temporary hit in Mar 2020 at the height of the covid crisis but was 4% positive over the full year, and
3. almost a 20% hit during the year 2022 but ending down only 9% for the year
The OP does need to understand there will be volatility in the annual returns of an equity ETF but over a 5 year multi-year period will almost certainly out perform anything on a fixed income basis, especially from a more conservative dividend ETF like VDY.
I thus recommend that IF the OP does decide to put $50k into an equity ETF that he pick one like VDY (or similar peers) that is less volatile than a growth/momentum ETF.
3:15 pm
March 30, 2017
Offline
For someone who has not invested in equities before, putting money into the stock market at current level is prob NOT the best timing. Even more true for a retiree who has a limited time horizon to outlast the downturns that are guaranteed to happen in equity market.
In my opinion, to do well in the equity market, one needs to keep invest steadily esp during the downturn like Asian crisis, tech bubble, Financial crisis, covid. In other words, one needs to have the $ and the guts to buy more in a market under deep correction. Its very hard if one just put in a fixed amount and then try to ride out the highs and lows.
3:28 pm
October 27, 2013
Online
That is not true. I have invested continuously over 30+ years, not timing anything.
'Time in the market rather than timing the market' is a very true saying. It is because no one can truly time the market except by mostly luck in a few specific situations such as the GFC.
My overall return for the 18 year period of mid-year 2008 to mid-year 2026 is a fraction under 10% compounded annually on a MWRR or XIRR basis. I use mid-2008 as my starting point because of a Division of Assets just before that time and it took me a few months to re-arrange my portfolio.
I did nothing special except to say invested across broad markets on more or less a global basis. No chasing of hot stocks, no going in and out of the market, no chasing 'hot' sectors, just simple basis broad market investing. Anyone can do it if they follow a few basic rules.
I am not trying to sell anyone on equity investing as the holy grail but I do push back against erroneous and biased commentary. I am 77 and remain fully invested with a high equity portfolio. I see no reason for me to change that for the rest of my living days. It does not matter if there are down years yet to be experienced. It is knowing the up years make up for down years and more.
