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When to lock in a longer term like 5yrs?
December 28, 2022
10:00 am
gicjunkie
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Quite frankly, the expectation of rates holding firm for the next 6-12 months, followed by a decline thereafter, and the fact that many institutions are currently offering higher rates for 1-2 years than for 5 years, has indicated to me that the trend towards raising long term rates is actually now coming to an end. So, if one has been waiting to invest some money in a long term GIC at a high rate, your time may actually be now. Of course, this is only my opinion. Any kind of world altering event which may occur in the meantime likely will make this theory moot.

Good luck to us all in trying to time the market.

December 28, 2022
10:43 am
smayer97
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agit said
OK We will NOT listen to Tiff Macklem, Jerome Powell, Christine Lagarde or Andrew Bailey some are considered one of the most powerful positions in the entire world and have more economic influence than anyone, anywhere  

Think the Fed leads the market? Consider this:

https://www.elliottwave.com/Interest-Rates/Fed-Ignores-Reality-by-Hiking-Rates-Again

So who is leading whom?

December 28, 2022
7:26 pm
Lodown
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smayer97 said

Think the Fed leads the market? Consider this:

https://www.elliottwave.com/Interest-Rates/Fed-Ignores-Reality-by-Hiking-Rates-Again

So who is leading whom?  

The market moves daily second by second while it is open. The Fed moves a few times a year. So yes, the chart is what it is. However, it is only the FED who can impact everyone in the country when they make a rate change up or down...it is not the market.

December 29, 2022
4:15 am
smayer97
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One of the take-way question is how much of their decision-making is independent? In other words, it seems that the Fed reacts to the market rather than leads it.

January 1, 2023
11:34 am
smayer97
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Here is an even better presentation:
https://www.elliottwave.com/Interest-Rates/Do-Interest-Rates-follow-the-Federal-Reserve-or-do-interest-rates-lead-and-the-fed-follows

Bottom line is that if you want to know where interested rates are going, just follow the 3- and 6-month bond market/T-Bills.

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