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Rate change effective Jan 26
January 26, 2024
8:07 am
savemoresaveoften
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One-Year Quarterly Term
5.20%

One-Year Non-Redeemable
5.50%

Two-Year Term:
5.40%*

Three-Year Term:
4.95%*

Four-Year Term:
4.85%*

Five-Year Term:
4.75%*

January 26, 2024
8:18 am
CAD
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January 25, 2024
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Drop was for longer term.
- Does it mean rates will slowly go down in 2024?
- Is it a good time to get 1y GIC?
- Or is it better to get 1y-3 months payout GIC?

All at Hubert...

January 26, 2024
8:43 am
Dean
Valhalla Mountains, British Columbia
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.
Welcome to 'The Club', CAD

Here, maybe this will help . . .

    Dean sf-wink

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

January 26, 2024
8:50 am
Winnie
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CAD said
Drop was for longer term.
- Does it mean rates will slowly go down in 2024? 

I heard that rate probably will go down on June 6, 2024 (about 50% probability) or July 24, 2024 (80% probability), but who knows, maybe later or not in 2024 at all.

January 26, 2024
9:11 am
cgouimet
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savemoresaveoften said
One-Year Quarterly Term
5.20%

One-Year Non-Redeemable
5.50%

Two-Year Term:
5.40%*

Three-Year Term:
4.95%*

Four-Year Term:
4.85%*

Five-Year Term:
4.75%*  

Compensation for reduced functionality and service ... sf-laughsf-laughsf-laugh

CGO
January 26, 2024
9:25 am
Technical Analyst
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Winnie said

CAD said
Drop was for longer term.
- Does it mean rates will slowly go down in 2024? 

I heard that rate probably will go down on June 6, 2024 (about 50% probability) or July 24, 2024 (80% probability), but who knows, maybe later or not in 2024 at all.  

I wouldn't bet on rates going down if Canada, USA and EU are still funding wars. Wars are inflationary by nature.

What we haven't seen yet is the Red Sea shipping disruption in pricing, but it does take some time for the supply chain and the ships to dock (extra 11 days and 100% more shipping cost per container).

January 26, 2024
1:07 pm
Alexandre
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I absolutely expect rates to go down in Canada.

BoC is under pressure from all sides to make that happen:

Rich people can't sell real estate for price they want.
Middle class can't finance with debt lifestyle they want.
Poor people are drowning under credit card and unsecured loan interest rates.
Minority government trying to please everyone just to stay in power.

Rates will go down, inflation or no inflation. To placate people angry about high grocery prices the government might release another grocery rebate.

January 26, 2024
2:27 pm
smayer97
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Though it may seem like the BoC makes independent decisions about rate changes, they are in fact 100% driven by the short term Bond market. FULL STOP!

Don't believe me? Just pull up charts of the 3- and 6- month bond markets and plot BoC rate changes... 100% of the time they lag, for DECADES, by a short while. Meaning, rate changes are directly a response to the bond market.

January 26, 2024
9:29 pm
HermanH
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Alexandre said
I absolutely expect rates to go down in Canada.

BoC is under pressure from all sides to make that happen:

Are you suggesting that BoC rate decreases will appear even if the rate of inflation stays over 3% (or rises) over the next few months?

January 27, 2024
3:02 am
RetirEd
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My personal, unassisted-by-fortunetellers plan is to go longer for at least the rest of the year. My mileage may vary, too.

RetirEd

January 27, 2024
4:44 am
savemoresaveoften
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smayer97 said
Though it may seem like the BoC makes independent decisions about rate changes, they are in fact 100% driven by the short term Bond market. FULL STOP!

Don't believe me? Just pull up charts of the 3- and 6- month bond markets and plot BoC rate changes... 100% of the time they lag, for DECADES, by a short while. Meaning, rate changes are directly a response to the bond market.  

Completely wrong, FULL STOP! It showed timing, not who leads who.
Pull up all the BoC minutes 3-6 months before bond traders started making marked rates changes….

You can still believe whatever you like to believe in, just don’t preach something completely false please. Some comes to this site to try to learn a thing or two about the market.

January 27, 2024
6:46 am
Alexandre
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HermanH said

Alexandre said
I absolutely expect rates to go down in Canada.

BoC is under pressure from all sides to make that happen:

Are you suggesting that BoC rate decreases will appear even if the rate of inflation stays over 3% (or rises) over the next few months?  

Yes, I do. I expect that by mid-Summer rates in Canada will go down at least once, and will not go up at all. Inflation or no inflation.
Mark my words ... and on July 16, 2024 rub them in my face if I was wrong.

The pressure in the US to drop rates will also be high, if not higher. Elections coming this year and ruling party is not doing well in polls. Time to bring something tangible that borrowers will feel right away, and if it is going to speed up inflation later, that would be the problem for the next administration to deal with.

Upbeat articles in CNN:

Excluding energy and food [and shelter costs] ... we’re headed in the right direction.
That should continue because of the policies put forth by the Biden administration.

Fed policymakers are expected [to start] cutting back on those rates slowly but surely this year.

is only the beginning.

January 28, 2024
4:25 pm
RetirEd
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US interest rates have historically been low in election years.

RetirEd

January 29, 2024
6:19 am
Alexandre
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As expected in election year:

In a Sunday letter to Fed Chair Powell, shared first with CNN, Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) expressed alarm at how “astronomical” mortgage rates have made a bad situation worse and urged Fed officials to start cutting borrowing costs.

“We urge you to consider the effects of your interest rate decisions on the housing market and to reverse the troubling rate hikes that have put affordable housing out of reach for too many,” Warren and fellow Democratic Sens. John Hickenlooper, Jacky Rosen and Sheldon Whitehouse wrote.

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