TFSA GIC: 2-yr 5.40% at Peoples OR 5-yr 5.00% at Hubert | GIC discussions | Discussion forum

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TFSA GIC: 2-yr 5.40% at Peoples OR 5-yr 5.00% at Hubert
February 6, 2023
7:53 pm
dickyran333
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My wife and I jointly have a TFSA room of about $130K and wondering which of the above 2 options make more sense if I don't need these funds after 2 years or even after 5 years.

I'm not interested in keeping my funds at WOBC's 5-yr 5.28% GIC or Habib Canadian Bank's 5-yr 5.25% GIC. The latter is offered through a broker though. As a BC resident, I have limited options even after considering the rates available through brokers. I find that the rates offered by many banks to public are far better than the rates offered by GIC brokers. For example, Monarch Wealth's best 5-year TFSA rate is only 4.10%, while Hubert / Accelerate, Alterna, etc. are still offering 5%.

From the numbers perspective, the breakeven rate for the above 2 options is 4.74%, i.e., if I choose 5.40% for 2 years (instead of at 5.00% for 5 years) then after 2 years I should invest at 4.74% for the next 3 years to approximately equal the interest I could have earned had I chosen 5.00% for 5 years. Anybody here thinks that the rates will be about 4.75% (or higher) after 2 years?

I feel that 5.40% is just a teaser rate and I should stay away from it, but I would love to hear any suggestions from the folks here.

February 6, 2023
10:28 pm
Loonie
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I wouldn't consider it a teaser rate. Many FIs seem to be emphasizing two year rates right now. This probably means their loan book emphasizes two year terms, and this in turn means a lot of people anticipate lower rates in two years but perhaps higher ones in between now and then.
.It doesn't mean they're right, of course!

Really, it's a toss-up. Nobody knows any better than you do where things will be in 2 or 5 years.

Consider other factors, perhaps.
e.g. if you go for five years, you won't have to go through this performance for another five years! Peoples is CDIC-insured; Hubert is provincial CU insurance; do you have a preference? We are in an age of rapidly changing social, environmental, political and (likely in my view) economic conditions, and in that context five years is a very long time. Consider the terms in the rest of your portfolio and look for some balance maybe. Do you prefer to keep your money in your home province, all things being equal (I do)? etc etc.
My suggestion is to look beyond the numbers box. You can drive yourself crazy trying to predict the future.

I'd go with 2 years at Peoples, for what it's worth.

February 7, 2023
12:46 am
HermanH
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dickyran333 said
I feel that 5.40% is just a teaser rate and I should stay away from it, but I would love to hear any suggestions from the folks here.  

I'm in the same situation; trying to decide between putting it in Peoples for 2-yr or W1 for 5-yr. I anticipate rates dropping to support the next manufactured 'crisis'. Politicians love to either find or fabricate emergencies on which to throw more money.

February 7, 2023
5:10 am
canadian.100
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Basic facts
1. Don’t try to time the market for GIC rates. Allocate amounts by term and issuers.
2. Reminder - Hubert deposits are not guaranteed by the Govt of Manitoba. In a previous post it was indicated that GIC Wealth Mgt has clients sign off that they acknowledge that fact. (Globe and Mail article)

I personally will avoid Credit Unions especially through GIC Brokers after the thread about Membership confusion.

February 7, 2023
5:58 am
savemoresaveoften
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canadian.100 said
Basic facts
2. Reminder - Hubert deposits are not guaranteed by the Govt of Manitoba. In a previous post it was indicated that GIC Wealth Mgt has clients sign off that they acknowledge that fact. (Globe and Mail article)

I thought it was mentioned brokers have investor buy a $5 membership so they are covered ??

Either way, when going with Hubert, just have ur own account with them, why need a broker...

February 7, 2023
6:42 am
RetirEd
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dickyran333: If you are calculating yields in the two-part 2-year/then new GIC of unknown term or rate, be sure to take into account that you will be getting .4% more during the first two years. That will mean you have more to deposit at the end of the two-year term.

You'll have to look at your laddering fit (when will you need cash, and how much is due and when?) to decide if you have enough flexibility. In two years, you will face a new deposit market and have to react to what's going on. And you'll be able to choose whether to reinvest the insurance or not, and whether to split the redeposit into two or more GICs, which may have different terms or even financial institutions.

Personally, my inclination would be to go with PT (or PB), as I live in Vancouver (where they have an actual office, though no free parking) and they have CDIC insurance. They also issue printed statements if desired.

RetirEd

RetirEd

February 7, 2023
6:59 am
GR
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With such a large amount, you also have the option to split in two with half for 2 yrs. and half for 5 yrs., if difficult to decide.

February 7, 2023
7:42 am
gicjunkie
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GR said
With such a large amount, you also have the option to split in two with half for 2 yrs. and half for 5 yrs., if difficult to decide.  

This is a great suggestion, if indeed you may need some of the money in two years. It gives you added options at that time. On the other hand, FIs are now showing a reluctance to offer their best rates for 5 years. Obviously they expect rates to decline in the not too distant future. Personally, I think rates peaked a number of weeks ago. If you can still get 5% or more for 5 years at what you consider to be a safe institution, I'd go long. In 2 or 3 years you may be sorry if you didn't take advantage of the current rates. Of course, this is all speculation on my part. sf-smile

February 7, 2023
10:25 am
phrank
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GR said
With such a large amount, you also have the option to split in two with half for 2 yrs. and half for 5 yrs., if difficult to decide.  

Sound advice. I personally don't think GICs are usually for speculating and that's why I usually use the 5 year plan where you put 20% of your GIC savings in each year so you're always getting the best and worst rate at any given time.

I say usually because I'm not doing this now as I'm using this weird time where savings accounts are as high or higher than GICs to merge multiple GICs into fewer, larger ones.

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