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GIC ladder for 3 or 5 years with current rates flat from 3 to 5 years
April 23, 2022
11:01 am
RicksBank
Alberta
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I'm looking at putting some funds into a GIC ladder. Every mention of GIC ladders uses a 5 year scenario. However, rates currently look like this for 1 to 5 years:

EQ Bank (Apr 22) 3.00 3.65 4.00 4.00 4.05

I can't get my head around which is better, a 5 year ladder or 3 year?
Do these rates (similar schedules for all banks) imply that they think rates will fall in a few years?

If it matters:

Oaken has slightly better rates at the moment, but I don't have an account there. I've been generally happy with EQ.
The total investment amount will be $150k, split into 2 ladders with my wife, so we're both under the CDIC $100k limit.
This is money that isn't part of our current retirement income, or expected to be needed any time soon.
Just for jollies, we plan to stagger the ladders to mature every 6 months or even every 3 months instead of once per year. Even though I said we don't think we'll need this money, I've never had a locked-in investment in my life (I'm 68) so I figure this is a gentle way to start.

April 23, 2022
11:50 am
Dean
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.
Some good questions there , RicksBank! And you're bound to get some good answers from this group.

For myself, I'd suggest you open up an Oaken account, to complement the account(s) you already have with EQ.

Both Oaken & EQ have always been GIC 'Top Contenders', and it's always good to have your $$$ in more than one FI (for a number of reasons you're probably already aware of).

My Two Centavos sf-smile

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

April 23, 2022
12:01 pm
cgouimet
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Unlike EQ, Oaken have joint GIC's.

And, you could have $300k of CDIC coverage for each Home Bank and Home Trust through Oaken ...

My 2¢'s ...

CGO
April 23, 2022
12:02 pm
Loonie
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Lots of good questions!

For starters, assuming this is non-registered money and that you don't have to keep husband and wife accounts separate for some reason, I would definitely suggest you move over to Oaken.

Here's why. With Oaken, you can use both HOme Trust and Home Bank, each of which has CDIC insurance, so you can cover up to 200K. Then you can put these GICs in both your names. When one of you dies, it will all automatically belong to the remiaining spouse, no probate tax.

Perasonally, I don't think this is enough money to bother with using multiple FIs, but you could if you want, and you might end up with more income. I just think it's too much bother for these amounts.

I used to think that current rates are related to what they think rates will be down the road,b ut I am less inclined to think that now. I think they are more related to the current rates for borrowers. It's more about where YOU think rates will be in 3 to 4 years, and that's a crystal ball question. My guess is that they will remain high, but I could be wrong.

If you are not sure of your comfort level wih locking in money, you might be better with a shorter ladder. Certainly times are volatile right now on several fronts and many things can change in even 3 years.
For an older person , especially if health issues, or for anyone who might possibly want access to the money I might suggest a shorter ladder, but that doesn't seem to be your situation.

You can also hedge your bets on rates by creating two ladders - one for 3 years and one for 5 years. With relatively small amounts as you have, this may be more trouble than it's worth, but you can see the point. The 4 and 5 year amounts are then eachonly 10% of the total, whereas in a regular 5 year ladder they would be 20%.

Something else to consider is staggering your purchases so as to take advantage of (hopefully) rising rates. You could buy one GiC every two months until end of the year for a 5 year ladder.

April 23, 2022
12:30 pm
cgouimet
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One quirk with Oaken ...

Online transfers only triggered from Oaken and only directly to/from the big 5 banks (BMO, CIBC, RBC, Scotia and TD) plus EQ Bank, HSBC, National Bank and Tangerine ...

Tansfers to/from any other FI needs a pit-stop at one of the above ...

CGO
April 23, 2022
1:56 pm
Dean
Valhalla Mountains, British Columbia
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cgouimet said

One 'Quirk' with Oaken ...

Online transfers only triggered from Oaken and only directly to/from the big 5 banks (BMO, CIBC, RBC, Scotia and TD) plus EQ Bank, HSBC, National Bank and Tangerine ...

Tansfers to/from any other FI needs a pit-stop at one of the above ...  

I prefer to call it a 'Wart' ... and as many of us know, Oaken has more than one.

But for Non-registered $$$, I still deal with them because of their high rates and the two CDIC Insured FI's they represent/offer.

Parting Shot "In the end, no FI is perfect"

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

April 23, 2022
6:05 pm
frugal lady
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Good answers from the group in response to Post 1.

I recently completed setting up Oaken accounts under Home Trust. In order to get CDIC insurance with Home Bank also, do I need to specifically open accounts under Home Bank also? OR, if I have funds in Oaken (Home Trust) account, and want a GIC can you stipulate it be with Home Bank or Home Trust?

I have some GIC's maturing in May and June and my thoughts were not to reinvest until after the BOC meetings June 1 and July 13 as I foresee further increases coming. In the meantime I can hold funds with Tangerine offer that ends July 31st. Where is the crystal ball when you need it?

Thoughts anyone on rate increases following June and July meetings?

April 23, 2022
6:16 pm
Bill
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When you buy your GIC you will stipulate whether it's to be a Home Trust or Home Bank GIC, either can be funded from your Home Trust savings account. Just be careful when they mature, if you direct that the funds go back to your Home Trust savings account you could be over the CDIC limit in that account.

April 23, 2022
6:54 pm
Loonie
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BoC has signaled that they intend to raise rates further. Assuming they don't change their mind, and i see no good reason at this point for them to do so, I believe they will do this and that retail rates will follow suit as they did after the April increase.
I could be wrong, of course, but it seems to me the preponderance of evidence points this way at this time.

April 23, 2022
7:42 pm
RicksBank
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Wow, lots of good replies already, thanks everyone!

You convinced me to open accounts at Oaken. Thanks for that.

When it got to the question if I was creating a joint account, I said NO for now, I guess only because I would have had to say that the joint person wasn't an Oaken client since my wife hasn't applied yet. Did I mess that up? Is an entire account joint, or just individual savings accounts and GICs within it? Can each GIC, besides choosing Home Bank or Home Trust, also be specified as joint or not? Oh, I'm assuming I can create multiple Savings accounts (with nicknames?) within my account like I can at Tangerine and EQ? Then, can some individually be specified as joint?

April 24, 2022
12:19 am
Loonie
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Each account , GIC or savings, must be designated either joint or individual. You can have some of both if you wish. I never applied online so don't know how that works.
However, if you open a GIC as individual, you can't later change it to joint, or vice versa. I'm not sure what it was exactly that you opened.

April 24, 2022
12:33 am
cgouimet
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RicksBank said
Wow, lots of good replies already, thanks everyone!

You convinced me to open accounts at Oaken. Thanks for that.

When it got to the question if I was creating a joint account, I said NO for now, I guess only because I would have had to say that the joint person wasn't an Oaken client since my wife hasn't applied yet. Did I mess that up? Is an entire account joint, or just individual savings accounts and GICs within it? Can each GIC, besides choosing Home Bank or Home Trust, also be specified as joint or not? Oh, I'm assuming I can create multiple Savings accounts (with nicknames?) within my account like I can at Tangerine and EQ? Then, can some individually be specified as joint?  

You now have an Oaken Client Number and a personal Savings Account with either HB or HT.

You can go through the same process for your wife: a new Client number for her and a personal Savings Account with either HB or HT.

Whether you are both with Savings at HB or HT or not doesn't matter.

You can then open new Accounts (Savings or GIC), for either HB or HT, one at a time for either Client or both Jointly as you wish ...

CGO
April 24, 2022
7:45 am
BlueSky
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frugal lady said

Thoughts anyone on rate increases following June and July meetings?  

Loonie said
BoC has signaled that they intend to raise rates further. Assuming they don't change their mind, and i see no good reason at this point for them to do so, I believe they will do this and that retail rates will follow suit as they did after the April increase.
I could be wrong, of course, but it seems to me the preponderance of evidence points this way at this time.  

I tend to agree with Loonie's assessment. The BoC has sat on the sidelines for too long on inflation, while it started to get out of control. It appeared the last 25 bps increase was not sufficient to deal with it, so the expectation is that they will get more aggressive the next two meetings. My guess is they will go for 50 bps for each. Last Friday I read a comment from the Governor of BoC that he admitted he didn't see it coming so strong. In essence, they tried to play it safe, but it came back to bite.

April 24, 2022
2:13 pm
RetirEd
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I split the diff and took half this year's ladder this month, the other half hedging against more rate increases.

And I will join in reminding folks nearing age 70 to pay close attention to their RRSP/RRIF etc. age-deadlined funds when planning ladders. There can be tax consequences or penalties if you lock funds into an account you have to get them out of!
RetirEd

...I just finished posting in another thread (Quebec GICs) why I would also consider Peoples Trust/Bank.

RetirEd

April 24, 2022
5:04 pm
mechone
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Rumor has it the BOC will do a 1% increase to the bank rate June 1 st bringing the rate to 2% , inflation is out of control.
Maybe we will see 5% GIC rates ,I'm holding out , this could be retirement for me

April 24, 2022
6:34 pm
HermanH
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A 1% change would be welcome, but I don't think it likely. When's the last time the BoC moved rates up sufficiently decisively?

The last change was 50 basis points and EQ had a 1-yr leading rate of 2.9% and it barely moved the needle, rising to 3%.

April 25, 2022
2:25 pm
RetirEd
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The Bank of Canada has signaled rate moves frequently. That's normal practice these days, so we don't get overwhelming rate shocks. The increase was already priced in - why else would rates have gone up so much even before the announcement?
RetirEd

RetirEd

April 25, 2022
4:06 pm
Loonie
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The interesting thing, though, is that rates have continued to climb SINCE the B0C's last hike, clearly anticipating more hikes.

April 26, 2022
5:53 am
savemoresaveoften
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At next BoC meeting:

100bps hike: 0% probability
75bps hike: 10% probability
50bps hike: 90% probability

The only time BoC has done a 100bps hike is during the Quebec referendum and that was a rare event to defend the Canadian dollar. In other words 100bps move will only happen due to emergency cut like financial crisis, covid type shock to the system. Central bank wont hike 100bps to shock the system against inflation. Its not their mandate to shock the system...

A steady 50bps clip for the next few meetings should wrestle inflation at some point. However the continuous supply shock may make it tricky. That is the part that central banks continue to see as transitory, which will proved to be correct at some point. Unfortunately still enuf of a price hike to trigger a recession in my mind.

April 26, 2022
7:15 am
Norman1
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More Bank of Canada hikes are coming.

The bank has signalled its intention is to bring the policy rate, now at 1%, up to at least neutral. That neutral rate for the economy is believed to be somewhere between 2% and 3%.

Not sure why Bank of Canada would shock the system at this point when they continue to believe inflation can take care of itself by end of next year. These were among statements made yesterday:

Our latest outlook is for inflation to average almost 6% in the first half of 2022 and remain well above our 1% to 3% control range throughout this year. We then expect it to ease to about 2½% in the second half of 2023 before returning to the 2% target in 2024.

… We can’t control or even influence the prices of most internationally traded goods. But if Canadians’ expectations of inflation stay anchored on the 2% target, inflation in Canada will come back down when global inflationary pressures from higher oil prices and clogged supply chains abate.

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