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Email this6:29 pm
May 20, 2016
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Any thoughts on this?
6:37 pm
December 17, 2016
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I just read this in the Globe & Mail today
Ramifications of a trade war: Experts look at the numbers for Canada
The report by Scotiabank said if the U.S. breaks all trade ties with its partners – and imposes across-the-board tariffs that average 20 per cent – then Canada and Mexico would see their economies contract in 2020.
For Canada, it predicts the economy would shrink 1.8 per cent.
3:30 pm
September 11, 2013
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Restricting trade, which seems to be the way of the world right now, to favour local purchasing would normally, due to economic contraction, put downward pressure on interest rates. I'm no expert on the 1930s but I believe a factor making things worse was a rising protectionist approach - maybe someone here knows more about those times and can enlighten us.
However, for a while now Canadian voters have shown they prefer parties that will print money whenever a "crisis" arises to keep the prosperity party going, and historically at some point the moneyprinting (i.e. its modern day equivalent) leads to inflation, i.e. rates go up, sometimes far and quickly.
So who knows? And maybe a couple years from now the rates will be the same as now.
3:56 pm
August 9, 2014
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Bill, restricting trade leads to increase in inflation because it reduce productivity (alternatively named as the aggregate supply by economist). This is similar to what happen during the oil crisis, where high inflation accompany with high unemployment. (And government face massive budget deficits that is mostly out of its control as program spending is link with inflation, but government revenue is not increasing.)
Additionally, most money is not created by central bank, instead, it is created by commercial bank via the fractional reserve system. Where money lend out become deposit in another FI and it is being lend out again.
4:35 pm
February 27, 2018
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I love this topic.
The only problem figuring this out is... correlations no longer exist. If the American dollar goes down, gold and oil SHOULD go up. Higher interest rates, SHOULD pull money out of the stock market. BAD news used to be reflected in stock prices and the printing of money, SHOULD make a currency worth less (damn the comma thing again) worth, less.
Canada is not self sufficient, we are probably one of the WORST countries for making products within our own borders. We sell our natural resources (many times at a loss) and then we buy the finished products back. Bombardier is an example of canada's ingenuity, and i'm not sure if I'd call that a success story. Kinder Morgan was going to build Alberta's pipeline, an American company. I worked 30 years at GM, an American company.
Canada has the second largest landmass in the world but NO population. We are bigger than the usa BUT more people live in the state of California, than in ALL of canada. 40 million vs 37 million. Canada needs to grow a set and we basically need to grow them over night. On the world stage canada is a pathetic joke.
EVERY province in Canada has a debt, and are currently running deficits.
Ontario, debt 312 billion, deficit 12 billion.
Alberta, debt 45 billion, deficit 3 billion.
Tell me, how the hell can canada survive with 10 HAVE NOT provinces? ALBERTA should have a trillion dollars surplus. Look at Norway for a comparison. https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2017/09/19/norway-s-oil-fund-hits-1-trillion-meanwhile-in-alberta_a_23215451/
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