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Low Inflation Again
September 16, 2020
3:10 pm
Vatox
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August comes out with same inflation as July.
0.1%

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200916/dq200916a-eng.htm

September 16, 2020
4:17 pm
Dean
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.
I'm guessing it will be like this, for the rest of the year.

Basically, 'Zero' inflation.

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long And Prosper " sf-cool

September 16, 2020
4:31 pm
AltaRed
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Good for retirees with non-indexed pensions.

September 16, 2020
6:03 pm
Vatox
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Not so good for TFSA contribution increase!

September 16, 2020
6:57 pm
Kidd
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Numbers and Stats are misleading.

If a town had a population of 2 people and one killed the other. Your government would quote... ONLY one person was killed in the town. If they were to say, 50% of the town's population was killed, it would look bad.

Everyday items that we buy have gone up in price. Trips to Kathmandu have gone down in price. So, your government adds items which we don't use or buy to make their false claims.

Unemployment numbers are doctored in the same fashion, in an attempt to make a government look like it's actually doing something worthwhile.

A recent stat said... during this covid pandemic household debt has declined by record amounts. Your government has made "YOUR" personal debt "OUR" debt, the debt has switched hands. This is not a celebratory event. It's lipstick on a pig.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7328674/canada-household-debt-ratio-drops-1-58-per-dollar-disposable-income/

September 16, 2020
7:22 pm
Kidd
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The above Kathmandu reference. I'm ageing myself.

September 16, 2020
8:05 pm
Bill
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Government can issue debt at far lower interest rates than consumers pay on their debts, so our leader says gov't taking on debt so that people can use that money the gov't sends them to pay off their debts is a good swap of debt. Trouble is, some of us have no personal debt, so now we as taxpayers have to pay off money that others have used to reduce their personal debts. But our leader's very popular, so I guess he knows it's a net vote-getter to take from the debt free to give to the indebted folks.

September 16, 2020
9:59 pm
Vatox
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Kidd, arguing about the misleading nature of some statistics is irrelevant when looking at CPI and inflation, because we get whatever they report. Doesn’t matter if you agree, disagree, like or don’t like. It’s what we get, period.

September 17, 2020
7:44 am
Jon
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Kidd, this is the basket of goods and service used to calculate CPI.

Travel service only take over a small portion of the CPI (less than 4%), while food from restaurants also only account for a small portion of CPI (around 5%).

My biggest concern with the current CPI calculation under the epidemics is the emphasis on gasoline and operation of passenger vehicles, which is 10% and 4% respectively. This is because when people stay home more, they also drive less.

Like I previously mention, when people believe the inflation is high, they are more incline to spend, which increase the velocity of money and actually push up the inflation as a result.

I do wonder why can't Statistic Canada change the basket more frequently, consider that they can probably get anonymised spending data from debit and credit card company. This will improve the validity of CPI calculation (make it track real world better), and make people trust the CPI figure more.

September 17, 2020
9:13 am
AltaRed
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Complainers should perhaps read https://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/subjects-start/prices_and_price_indexes/consumer_price_indexes to see that StatsCan does make adjustments as best they can based on changes in consumption patterns. It would be pure coincidental that our personal experience in inflation would match that of StatsCan's regional data... since few of us are the 'average' Canadian in a particular region.

September 17, 2020
10:12 am
Dean
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AltaRed said

Complainers should perhaps read https://www.statcan.gc.ca/eng/subjects-start/prices_and_price_indexes/consumer_price_indexes to see that StatsCan does make adjustments as best they can based on changes in consumption patterns.

It would be pure coincidental that our personal experience in inflation would match that of StatsCan's regional data... since few of us are the 'average' Canadian in a particular region.  

Exactly ❗❗

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long And Prosper " sf-cool

September 17, 2020
10:49 am
Jon
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First of all AltaRed, thank you for contributing something useful. I am not aware they have temporarily change the way CPI is calculated.

Second of all, the very beginning of your respond just prove my point, you are just someone that is crass. Other members can judge it for themselves.

Third of all, I certainly aware that we all consume different basket of goods compare with the CPI calculation. I have talk about this before in this forum a long while back in a conversation with Loonie.

Forth of all, you completely miss my point. What I try to say is Statistic Canada should use credit and debit card info of Canadian (big data) to frequently adjust (on monthly basis ?) the basket of CPI so it can be more trustworthy.

I have a feeling most people complain about the accuracy of CPI is because human cannot intuitively conceptualize an exponential function (God somehow don't add that into our brain), where the property of said function is that it grow extremely rapidly. In the case of CPI, last month/year of growth become current year/ current month's base when calculating CPI, as a result, the dollar amount of goods actually grow faster despite the percentage of growth is the same.

September 17, 2020
10:58 am
Bill
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The basic private sector purchases go and down, I find - for example, we were paying more for gas a few years ago, it's been lower for quite a while. That's been a big and long-term saving, no-one mentions it. Same with food, there's always some stuff available they seem to want to get rid of at a good price, depending on season, amount in the warehouse, new competitors in grocery space, etc.

What I find goes up consistently and regularly more than the CPI rates over the years seems to be my property taxes (which includes a large component for unionized public sector workers like teachers, firefighters, police and other and municipal workers, they seem to be doing pretty well, at least in my town), and my insurances.

I must admit though, I'm not a very ardent consumer of discretionary stuff so I'm not really up on most of the CPI basket stuff.

September 17, 2020
11:08 am
AltaRed
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I think monthly model adjustments would be too unstable due to lots of temporary things like weather events, etc. I'd much sooner see a quarterly (3 month) moving average to smooth out the rough edges, and I don't actually even mind a 12 month rolling average in most cases (this year of covid-19 perhaps being an exception).

I am a strong believer that doing things at a fractional micro level just results in a lot of noise and causes one to lose sight of the forest for the trees. I'd hate for business or policy decisions to be prematurely based on such preciseness.

Added: I believe use of monthly credit and debit card data would be an example of looking at the wrong data. It would be much better, for example, to look at supply/demand data at the wholesale/retail level. I think it would be more accurate to look at grocery store product sales each month to see where people are spending their money. Same with restaurant receipts by restaurant chain type, e.g. Keg's steak house vs fast food. That is the level at which I believe data becomes useful on a practical basis.

September 17, 2020
12:42 pm
Vatox
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Everyone needs to stop comparing their own living costs to the CPI.

I report it for one reason only, because it’s what is used for indexation of government benefits. It’s what we get and that’s all there is to it.

September 17, 2020
6:21 pm
pooreva
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Vatox said
Everyone needs to stop comparing their own living costs to the CPI.

I report it for one reason only, because it’s what is used for indexation of government benefits. It’s what we get and that’s all there is to it.  

I am sorry but I do not care about 'government benefits' nor for 'CPI' and I doubt anybody else cares about those.
What I care is how much my money can buy at the grocery store. I care that 12 large eggs now cost $2.87 and few weeks ago they cost $2.67.
I care that price of chicken liver (fresh) jumper from $6.59 to $6.99/kg.
Should I continue???

September 17, 2020
6:34 pm
Bill
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pooreva, if it makes you feel any better try buying food in pretty much any other 1st world country, you'll kiss the floor in our grocery stores on your return. Even in California and Florida, try to find oranges (and other fresh stuff) as plentiful and cheap as here, not available from what I've seen. I also used to visit Europe, that's what made me vow never to complain again about our food prices. Especially this time of year, the bounty is incredible, and cheap!

September 17, 2020
7:37 pm
AltaRed
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Food is a major component of the CPI index, as it should be. So it is accounted for on an average Canadian basis.

Food cost is a big deal for a family with hungry teens and thus they likely proportionately spend more on food than the CPI basket, but for seniors who have lighter and lighter appetites for every year they age, and the family has long been punted from the nest, I find it difficult to complain legitimately about our food costs.

As Bill suggests, we have it pretty good compared to most countries. Now if our loonie collapses, that will change matters considerably, especially outside our growing season.

September 17, 2020
10:52 pm
Vatox
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pooreva said

I am sorry but I do not care about 'government benefits' nor for 'CPI' and I doubt anybody else cares about those.
What I care is how much my money can buy at the grocery store. I care that 12 large eggs now cost $2.87 and few weeks ago they cost $2.67.
I care that price of chicken liver (fresh) jumper from $6.59 to $6.99/kg.
Should I continue???  

Lol, okay, I’m sorry I posted about CPI because you don’t care for it. Don’t open the thread or reply to it then. It’s financial information and totally belongs on this site.

September 18, 2020
3:32 am
Loonie
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On behalf of those of us who DO care about certain gov't benefits, it sounds like we shouldn't expect a rise in OAS in October. Correct?

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