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June Inflation
July 28, 2021
7:51 pm
Vatox
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July 29, 2021
3:58 pm
dougjp
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When my barber increases 12+% and lumber is up, what, 3X?, 3.1% doesn't seem to present a real picture. With last month being similarly small.

I mean, a lot of things have to be dropping for this number to come up, and I've seen nothing but 3+% increases. Math isn't working here?

"Tell a man that there are 400 billion stars and he'll believe you. Tell him a bench has wet paint and he has to touch it." ~ Steven Wright

July 29, 2021
8:06 pm
Vatox
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dougjp said
When my barber increases 12+% and lumber is up, what, 3X?, 3.1% doesn't seem to present a real picture. With last month being similarly small.

I mean, a lot of things have to be dropping for this number to come up, and I've seen nothing but 3+% increases. Math isn't working here?  

That’s too narrow minded! You are basically saying that lumber and haircuts are a massive portion of expenses for an average person. You are also saying that StatsCan can’t do proper math. It’s more likely that you have never looked at the components and weightings of the CPI and have no idea what you are saying.

July 29, 2021
8:36 pm
Norman1
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Lots of things have been dropping.

The article Consumer Price Index, June 2021 that Vatox included a link to points out a few such things:

… Conversely, the mortgage interest cost index fell 8.6% year over year, the strongest decline on record, as interest rates remained at historically low levels.

The fresh or frozen beef index fell 11.1%, compared with June 2020 when beef prices rose 8.3% month over month as a result of reduced supply following plant closures due to COVID-19 outbreaks. …

The fresh vegetables index continued to trend downwards in June, falling 7.5% year over year — the largest yearly decline since March 2017. This was partially attributable to lower prices for tomatoes (-30.3%) and potatoes (-7.7%) in June. …

July 30, 2021
6:21 am
Loonie
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I wouldn't take such declines as solid indicators.

Mortgages decline but cost of houses goes up. Landlords are not going to decrease rents because their mortgages got cheaper. They will only do so if they have to compete for tenants.

They were practically giving greenhouse tomatoes away at a farm near Leamington a couple of months ago ($5 per flat). The reason was that the restaurants were no longer buying. With restaurants reopening, one can expect tomatoes to equal or exceed pre-covid prices as farmers try to recoup losses.

Beef is cheap because farmers in MB and probably elsewhere in the prairies are experiencing so much drought that they can't pasture their cattle, so are forced to sell them off. In due course there will be fewer cattle and higher price for beef.

I don't see inflation calming down much. I think it's more likely that it will continue and increase.

July 30, 2021
6:22 am
Alexandre
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lower prices for tomatoes (-30.3%)

They practically give tomatoes for free at my grocery store.
...
...
...
That was sarcasm.

July 31, 2021
8:52 am
Dean
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Vatox said

3.1%

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210728/dq210728a-eng.htm  

This puts the present *&^%$# measly HISA & GIC Rates into proper perspective. And don't forget to and add income tax to that ❗

We're going 'Backwards' ... Real Fast. sf-confused

This just makes me want to . . .

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long And Prosper " sf-cool

July 31, 2021
10:08 am
COIN
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Apparently, the BofC Governor said the recent inflation rate(s) are a "temporary blip" and the BofC will not change monetary policy.

July 31, 2021
11:10 am
Norman1
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Some of the prices increases are one-time or not sustained.

There was a 295% import tariff added to certain imported furniture. Had nothing to do with supply, demand, or interest rates. There isn't going to be another 295% tariff next year on top of that.

Lumber prices crashed by 70% after peaking at around 4X last year's prices. Lumber demand has plummeted. Looks like people got smart and realized they don't absolutely have to do their renovations this year.

We will likely see something similar with travel. People may realize that trip to Europe or Jamaica isn't worth 3X or 4X what the prices were before.

July 31, 2021
12:59 pm
Alexandre
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Lumber prices crashed by 70% after peaking at around 4X last year's prices.

If my math is right, it means lumber prices are still more than 2X what they were last year.

July 31, 2021
1:40 pm
Vatox
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Alexandre said

Lumber prices crashed by 70% after peaking at around 4X last year's prices.

If my math is right, it means lumber prices are still more than 2X what they were last year.  

A 50% drop would be 2x last year prices. A 70% drop is not more than 2x last year.

July 31, 2021
1:43 pm
Vatox
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30% of the 4x increase would remain. Meaning 1.2x.

July 31, 2021
2:18 pm
Alexandre
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Imbalances in supply and demand pushed prices for lumber from $285 per 1,000 board feet in March 2020 up to more than $1,000 for the same amount in September 2020. And though they fell back below $500 just a month later, prices then began to stagger upward again, until March 2021, when they skyrocketed from around $800 for 1,000 board feet to a peak above $1,600 in May.

However, since mid-May, lumber prices per 1,000 board feet have crashed back down and now [July 2021] sit at $490.

Just 1.7X above last year prices. Not 2X. I am glad I was wrong, what a relief.

July 31, 2021
6:45 pm
Norman1
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According to July 27 Globe & Mail article Lumber demand plummets as do-it-yourself boom ends, Western SPF 2x4's were sold for an average of US$422.50 for 1,000 board feet in February 2020, before any pandemic was declared.

The US$490 now is not that far off. About 1.16X.

July 31, 2021
9:25 pm
Vatox
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Norman1 said
According to July 27 Globe & Mail article Lumber demand plummets as do-it-yourself boom ends, Western SPF 2x4's were sold for an average of US$422.50 for 1,000 board feet in February 2020, before any pandemic was declared.

The US$490 now is not that far off. About 1.16X.  

Yep, I got 1.2x from your earlier numbers.

July 31, 2021
10:31 pm
Kidd
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Lumber is a commodity. It hit a peak in May 2021 and the price of wood increased. By july, lumber was trading at 2021 lows. This is where the greed/opportunity factor kicked in, this is what kept the prices of wood high, higher than it should have been. It was NOT back inventory or demand, it was pure 100% GREED. Anyone who buys gasoline for their car, knows of canada's greed/opportunity factor.

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs

Screenshot_20210801-011500.png

July 31, 2021
10:53 pm
Kidd
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Here's a great link. A link worth keeping.

https://www.gasbuddy.com/charts

It's a gasoline comparison graph, in either American dollars/gallons OR canadian dollars/litres. You can select different states and different provinces for a true comparison. The Americans pay 40% less for gasoline than we do, on average. Someone else can type the rant.

Screenshot_20210801-015021.png

August 1, 2021
4:56 am
Alexandre
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I am happy for homeowners of large houses, who could now build large patio with the roof for almost the same as pre-pandemics.

Meanwhile, my favorite brand of coffee I buy is up 20% for 100g, dishwasher detergent is up 47% and laundry detergent is up 11%.
To name just few of things I routinely buy from the same place, of the same brand.

My plan would be to trust our politicians and BoC, who are saying inflation is temporary. I'll just acquire about 1 year supply of not perishable goods and those with expiry date after 2022. While their prices are still adjusting to post-pandemics levels, which will sound like a bargain in just few weeks.

If politicians' forecast happened to be correct, a year from now we can buy goods at pre-pandemic prices, just in time for me to run out of my stockpiles. If they aren't correct, I'll have at least a year of price cushion thanks to my plan.

August 1, 2021
7:30 am
COIN
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Speaking of inflation. Bike inner tubes have doubled in one year. Fortunately, I don't usually buy more than one inner tube a year. Bike parts are also harder to get as they seem to all come from China.

Meanwhile, interest rates on deposits have declined by around 50%. Institutions are overflowing with money.

August 1, 2021
7:53 am
Kidd
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Alexandre said
My plan would be to trust our politicians and BoC, who are saying inflation is temporary.

More sarcasm? sf-wink Alexandre, there's an old saying... how do you know when a politician is lying? Answer, their lips are moving.

We seem to have this inflation debate every month, with those who buy things, swearing the cost is higher, the size is smaller, or in some cases, companies in canada are doing both... you're getting it from both ends.

The inflation report said beef prices have dropped... are they talking about 100% beef hot dogs, made from the bloody scraps scraped off the floor?

Alexandre, the BOC has no other option but to lie about inflation. To increase interest rates, would cause debt defaults of a catastrophic proportion. Sally Struthers would be on tv, crying for the poor canadians.

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