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Is it a good time to buy American dollars?
June 15, 2021
2:55 pm
Bobbyjet11
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Just wondering what thoughts folks have about purchasing American dollars at this time.... as an investment. Historically, the Can $ will fall back to low to mid 70's from the current 82 cents. The question is how long will it take?

June 15, 2021
3:21 pm
HermanH
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The last time the Canadian dollar was at or near parity with the USD, my mother bought a swack, just as you suggest. However, she never bothered (or intended) to sell them. She seems to just like having them as cash. So, they have been sitting around for years earning squat for interest, just so that she can brag that she has all this cash bought at parity. She earned nothing from them and simply took her own cash out of circulation.

Had she kept the cash and simply bought GIC, she should have been further 'ahead'. I think she 'outsmarted' herself. sf-laugh

June 15, 2021
5:07 pm
AltaRed
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Go to https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/currency and pick 'All'. When do you think CAD will go to 75 cents?

June 16, 2021
5:18 am
topgun
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How high will the CAD dollar go? Excellent question. I have no idea? I have a couple US stocks that pay a regular USD dividend quarterly. I convert to CAD ASAP. If I travel somewhere that I need USD I will use a credit card.

Have a Great Day

June 17, 2021
2:01 pm
Dean
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Bobbyjet11 said

Just wondering what thoughts folks have about purchasing American dollars at this time.... as an investment. Historically, the Can $ will fall back to low to mid 70's from the current 82 cents. The question is how long will it take?  

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the overall historical average for the Canadian dollar ~ $0.80 USD ❓

If that's the case, I wouldn't think it's time to jump in just yet.

I'd be inclined to . . .

    Dean

sf-cool " Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! " sf-cool

June 17, 2021
4:40 pm
AltaRed
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The loonie has been at various 'pegged' rates in the distant past but traditionally it has been around the 80-82 cent mark which coincides more, or less, with our productivity efficiency relative to the USA. It is anybody's guess what the future holds.

June 18, 2021
3:54 pm
Rick
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I pick away at it and let it accumulate since it's hovering around 80. Usually with my Tangerine Mastercard cash back. Bought some today with EQ for .7922. Slightly better than Tang's rate. My last cash conversion, waaay back when, I did a few grand @ 1.01 and more when it hit 1.10ish. Since the bank (I found currency exchanges give better rates) takes a cut of every transaction, you need a swing of about a nickel to break even.

HermanH said
The last time the Canadian dollar was at or near parity with the USD, my mother bought a swack, just as you suggest. However, she never bothered (or intended) to sell them. She seems to just like having them as cash. So, they have been sitting around for years earning squat for interest, just so that she can brag that she has all this cash bought at parity. She earned nothing from them and simply took her own cash out of circulation.  

I used mine to buy gas and groceries in WA state when our dollar was pushing 65 cents. No GIC was going to give me 30%+. Kinda hurt to let it go though. None left now save a bunch of ones for tipping the pool waitresses in Cancun.

If and when it ever goes above 90, I'll start accumulating larger amounts. With the liberals racking up debt, doubt it will ever get that close again unless the US has some serious issues. Trillion here....trillion there....adds up.

June 19, 2021
5:13 am
savemoresaveoften
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Dean said

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the overall historical average for the Canadian dollar ~ $0.80 USD ❓

If that's the case, I wouldn't think it's time to jump in just yet.

I'd be inclined to . . .

    Dean

  

yes 80 cents ish is more or less the long term average (going back last 20-30 years). If one needs it regularly like snow birds etc, then take some in here and there. I wont load up for investment purpose. At the same time, I dont see it at par again in the near or distant future either. Trying to time FX rates is way harder than timing oil or stocks or gold, maybe easier than bitcoin lol

June 19, 2021
10:08 am
Bill
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HermanH, your Mom's made about 25% since she bought at par, maybe around 2007, if she cashes in today. Plus capital gains tax vs full tax of gic income. So not a total nothing, though of course this all means nothing if she just keeps her $US.

Canadian dollar still tied to oil price, and other resources, more than $US, so that plays a role in any guessing about the future.

And comparing federal debts of Canada vs USA needs to be done via various ratios, etc, actual dollar amounts are meaningless. I have no ideas what Canada's federal debt situation is vs USA nor how total public debts (states/provinces, municipalities) compare, I suppose that bond ratings would be an indicator. For example, a few years ago I heard California's going under, then I heard Ontario's in similar shape, nothing lately on those, so who knows?

June 19, 2021
11:02 am
Norman1
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Playing the currency exchange rates is not investing. It is speculation.

Also, not sure why people see the Canadian dollar falling to the US$0.70's.

Purchasing price parity for the US$ has been around C$1.20 according to the OECD:

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Canada 1.230 1.248 1.207 1.212 1.198 1.213 1.198

That implies a long-term pull of the C$ to around US 83¢.

June 26, 2021
7:18 pm
maxb
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Remember to us Norberts Gambit to exchange between cdn/us and thus not paying exchange fees....

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