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May 24, 2021
11:48 am
Kidd
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If "essential" is going to be free. Education, basic income, a place to call home. Shouldn't FOOD be free? Me no need education, me need food.

I've had this argument many times in the past. There's both a political and social divide in canada. I refer to it as those sitting on the wagon (free loaders) and the likes of me, the idiot breaking his back pulling the god damn wagon.

When i post my solutions, the outcry always results in my posts being removed. I believe i hold the record for the most deleted material in this forum.

The capital of canada must be moved a province or two, west of its current location. That idea shouldn't offend anyone.

May 24, 2021
1:08 pm
Alexandre
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Norman1 said
The quantity or supply of goods y won't increase when money supply M increases is the error the article points out.

I agreed with author of the article on that. In formula MV = Py it would be wrong to assume "y" won't go up at all when "M" goes up.

The mistake author makes and you repeat is that "P" won't change at all when "M" goes up. No good explanation is given to why price equilibrium won't move when demand (fueled by new money) increases.

This is where his arguments start falling apart. I may be old school, but I still believe in the following chart:

Supply-and-Demand.gif

Printing money and giving it to people so that they can pay the rent they were paying and buy the food that they were buying simply sustains the current demand for goods.

I am sorry, but you can't unsay it. What you said is economy won't notice the difference between a person that works 40 hours a week for $15/hour and same person that stopped working and is given $600/week by the government.

That might as well be true for some people with liberal arts degree, half of those working in finance industry and 90% of those who have "manager" in their job title - but definitely not for every profession and not for majority of population.

May 24, 2021
2:02 pm
Kidd
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The industrial revolution was based on supply and demand.

If i make more cogs, the cheaper the production cost per cog. Therefore, i can reduce the purchase price of a cog, which means more people can afford to buy a cog. i'll sell more cogs and make more profit.

The gm truck "body shop" in oshawa could make 500 trucks per shift, times 3 shifts, times 6 days a week. Day 6, was time and a half BUT benefits were costed out over Monday to Friday, so Saturday was no more expensive to gm.

The cost breakdown was in the ballpark of (if i remember correctly) the first two (2) weeks production of the year, paid the hourly wages. That was just the hourly wages, NOT... material, utilities, salaried positions, advertising, etc.

3 shifts, 6 days a week was a gravy train for gm.

May 25, 2021
12:32 am
Loonie
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CRB is not same as CERB. It has different criteria. I know people who got CERB who can't get CRB.

Bill said
It's true, CERB was an emergency general relief program whereas CRB (which needs to be viewed in conjunction with concurrent expanded EI provisions to which many unemployed CERB recipients transitioned) is aimed for a longer period. With CRB you can actually earn more and still receive it, so it's true that if you were on CERB but are not interested in looking for work (one of the criteria for CRB) then you don't get CRB. CRB is aimed at those who want to work but have suffered a total or at least a 50% income reduction due to the virus. Also, there is now the Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit (CRSB) and the Canada Recovery Caregiving Benefit (CRCB) for those who can't work due to virus-related reasons, so again these need to be considered. The end result is that these benefits are all aimed at people who want to but can't work for various virus-related reasons so, yes, if you've no intention of working, looking for work, wanting to work, etc, then CERB was better.  

I hope we can avoid a detailed exegesis of the CRB rules.
The point made earlier on which this discussion rests was that an employer blamed employees who wouldn't work because they could get CERB.
Allowing that this was misleading since CERB is long gone and has in some degree been replaced by CRB, you are right that CRB is primarily for people who have been working in 2020 and who want to work now.
The rules say that you may qualify if "you have not turned down reasonable work during the 2-week period you’re applying for" (among many other criteria). This alone would disqualify anyone who was not willing to continue working at the lumber mill, and, thus, the complaint from the employer was not currently valid.

May 25, 2021
12:26 pm
Norman1
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Loonie said

The rules say that you may qualify if "you have not turned down reasonable work during the 2-week period you’re applying for" (among many other criteria). This alone would disqualify anyone who was not willing to continue working at the lumber mill, and, thus, the complaint from the employer was not currently valid. 

I suspect Saver-Mom is not being given the full story.

Some of the mill's employees may not have returned. But, the mill is running at a reduced capacity with those who did return.

I suspect the mill has sold her siding to someone else who offered to pay the current price that's 3X or 4X the price at the time she place her order last year.

May 25, 2021
12:47 pm
Bill
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I agree, CERB ended so it can't be the reason people are turning down work, that's because many have transitioned to the newly-easier-to-qualify (until Sept/21, as of now) EI that qualifies folks who, due to virus, wouldn't normally have qualified for EI. It was important to me to augment that to your basic point, Loonie, that CERB is no longer available. Also, you indicated you know people who got CERB but can't get CRB, so again I thought it important not to omit that CRB does require one to be looking for, etc, work, as I'm sure most folks agree that, now that we're over the initial phase of emergency, taxpayers shouldn't be supporting those who have no need to be available for employment.

May 26, 2021
12:51 am
Loonie
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I hope you are happy with your augmentation, but it doesn't really have much to say about the issues at the mill, where the employer seems to be giving out excuses that are at best questionable. As far as we know, he didn't mention CRB, and that is the reason I didn't either until you experienced a need for augmentation.

In any event, there is more to the mill story than we have heard. At a minimum, we would need to talk to the workers to get a balanced view.

The fact that people have to be looking for work to get CRB is not relevant. If they have to do this to get CRB, and they are not working where employment is offered, then I have to conclude they are not getting CRB, so its existence is irrelevant. I think it's quite likely that some of them moved on, got a better or less onerous/dangerous job, went back to school, etc., but the employer continues to blame long-gone CERB.
CRB is a red herring in this discussion, and I should probably have just said so when you brought it up.

May 26, 2021
4:46 am
savemoresaveoften
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On one hand, the mills should be trying to max output at all costs, including paying thru the roof for workers, so they can sell as many as they can at the "inflated" price.
On the other hand, it is better to keep supply low, so they can continue to sell at "inflated" price for a longer time..

May 26, 2021
5:04 am
Bill
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Loonie, it's your speculations about what the mill workers may have moved on to, that work may be seasonal, that the employer's "excuses" are "questionable", etc, etc, as well as that you personally know people who got CERB but not CRB (without indicating it's because they're not interested in working) that are the red herrings and irrelevancies here. But I actually don't mind at all, conversations expand, morph, etc, that's what's cool about dialogue, I'm happy to educate about temporary expanded EI due to virus that people transitioned to after CERB, etc, if I feel it's part of the overall picture. Plus your usual attempts to restrict what is and what isn't on topic are always entertaining, you rarely disappoint!

May 26, 2021
5:33 am
Loonie
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Nobody was asking for your "education" about CRB actually. It's just clutter. Anyone who wanted to know could have looked it up. It's not hard to find or hard to understand.

Looking for alternative explanations is a good thing. Always consider the source.
It doesn't matter why people don't get CRB. There are various reasons.

You rarely disappoint in your eagerness to twist conversations off-topic in order to promote your usual agendas. Nobody is obliged to entertain them or respond. If you want to "educate" the thin air, it may be an odd way to spend one's time, but it's up to you and the moderator.

May 26, 2021
6:26 am
canadian.100
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Loonie said
Nobody was asking for your "education" about CRB actually. It's just clutter. Anyone who wanted to know could have looked it up. It's not hard to find or hard to understand.

Looking for alternative explanations is a good thing. Always consider the source.
It doesn't matter why people don't get CRB. There are various reasons.

You rarely disappoint in your eagerness to twist conversations off-topic in order to promote your usual agendas. Nobody is obliged to entertain them or respond. If you want to "educate" the thin air, it may be an odd way to spend one's time, but it's up to you and the moderator.  

Loonie - this is not Russia, China or Turkey - we have free speech - not sure why you are so intolerant of Bill's comments. I found Bill's point of view reasonable and valid. I was not all that familiar with the CERB and CRB which seem to have been created overly complicated - so this gives me some info bearing in mind that some of what is in this blog (even your comments) may or may not be fully accurate.

May 26, 2021
6:16 pm
Loonie
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There is a long history here, canadian100. I'm not sure if you are unaware or choose to ignore it. But I am sure that a public fight about it will not improve anything.
I imagine you are aware of the many complaints about off-topic conversations as they are hard to miss. It is sometimes difficult to know where to draw the line, but comparisons to Russia and China etc are unhelpful and inflammatory.

We have covered the various possibilities underlying the lumber mill's comments about supply. If someone wants to discuss qualifications for CRB, they are free to start a new thread in which to do so.

There are lots of fascinating facts to be learned out there, but they don't all belong here.

May 27, 2021
5:52 am
canadian.100
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Loonie said

We have covered the various possibilities underlying the lumber mill's comments about supply. If someone wants to discuss qualifications for CRB, they are free to start a new thread in which to do so.

There are lots of fascinating facts to be learned out there, but they don't all belong here.  

Of interest to some, perhaps related to your and others' references above to the lumber mills' comments about supply......The National Post has an article today (May 27) re the "Feds' $240M Mistake" ... "Ineligible Canadians will be allowed to keep CERB". So it is not a stretch that maybe the mill employees (and others) did not want to return to work because of the generous govt benefits which they will not have to repay even if they were ineligible. This will have an effect on inflation - which is the actual topic of this thread.

May 27, 2021
9:17 am
Norman1
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The situation described by the National Post article Forgiving CERB debt for ineligible Canadians… doesn't apply to the mill employees because they are not self-employed.

Certain self-employed people got bad info from CRA about whether or not they qualified. The criteria was supposed to be $5,000 net income. CRA told some people that it was $5,000 gross income.

May 27, 2021
10:43 am
Saver-Mom
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Interesting. In the same NP article is reported, “The generosity of CERB has already come under scrutiny with Statistics Canada revealing that Canadians experienced ‘extraordinary changes in their economic well-being’ during the pandemic as they gained thousands of dollars more from COVID-19 support payments than they lost in wages. During one three month period last year, young and middle-aged households generally gained around $3,000 more through support measures, particularly CERB, than they lost in earnings. At the same time, middle-income earners in the second-lowest quintile earned additional income at roughly $2,500.”

This and other inappropriate govt giveaways and spending will drive debt for tax-paying Canadians, and along with inflation will impoverish us.

As for the mill, they seem to have the manpower back now, but are also having wood supply problems. But Savesmore may be onto something about delivering to higher paying customers first...

May 27, 2021
5:04 pm
Loonie
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I don't follow the argument that someone getting 2000/month from CERB is somehow getting more than if they'd worked. 2000/month is about 500/week, which is about 12.50/hour for a 40 hour week. That is significantly less than the minimum wage in Ontario.

I believe some people applied retroactively, after they discovered they were eligible, and that may have skewed the stats during a particular 3 month period as they were receiving catch-up money.

I think a more accurate retrospective measure would be earnings from employment 2019 vs 2020-including-CERB or something along those lines.
I have no idea what that comparison might reveal. But what we do know is that the government had to make a decision in a hurry as a lot of people were going under fast. In retrospect, I imagine they might have done it somewhat differently, but it did keep us from going under more broadly, which would have had a cascading effect throughout the economy. If you let people just sink into a hole, they are going to cost the taxpayer in several other ways.

In my view, the current situation will not impoverish us, and I'm not the only one who sees it this way. What worries me is what happens during and after the next major crisis and the one after that, because they are coming soon. We were not prepared for this one because of other earlier bad government decisions and, so far, we are not doing very well at preparing for the next. Planning to anticipate and minimize the next crises is also going to cost money, and people will complain about that, but the alternatives are much worse. We are all going to have to learn to change our priorities.

May 27, 2021
8:11 pm
HermanH
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Loonie said
I don't follow the argument that someone getting 2000/month from CERB is somehow getting more than if they'd worked. 2000/month is about 500/week, which is about 12.50/hour for a 40 hour week. That is significantly less than the minimum wage in Ontario.

I think that a better perspective is a 35-hour work-week, which equates to $14.28 / hour.

A minimum wage of $15 / hour means a 33.3 hour work week; a perfectly reasonable expectation.

Loonie said
I think a more accurate retrospective measure would be earnings from employment 2019 vs 2020-including-CERB or something along those lines.
I have no idea what that comparison might reveal. But what we do know is that the government had to make a decision in a hurry as a lot of people were going under fast. In retrospect, I imagine they might have done it somewhat differently, but it did keep us from going under more broadly, which would have had a cascading effect throughout the economy. If you let people just sink into a hole, they are going to cost the taxpayer in several other ways.

I can understand how quickly the government felt it needed to act. Unfortunately, the broad nature of the benefit took no account of need or financial position. While not an extravagant amount of money, it still rewarded those who were not as fiscally minded, saved, conservative, and prudent enough to live within their means.

Should someone who scrimps and saves for a rainy day be taxed to help someone who consistently spends every last dime of his paycheque?

How many live-at-home tweens and young adults took advantage of the expansive rules? Of course, there were many, many others for whom the money was an essential life-line and served the purpose for which it was intended. I doubt that there will ever be a complete reporting on how much was lost to fraud, dead relatives, incarcerated convicts, and others.

May 27, 2021
9:20 pm
Bud
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They will never raise rates unless they're forced to.

May 27, 2021
10:07 pm
Norman1
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Loonie said
I don't follow the argument that someone getting 2000/month from CERB is somehow getting more than if they'd worked. 2000/month is about 500/week, which is about 12.50/hour for a 40 hour week. That is significantly less than the minimum wage in Ontario.

It is not as simple as that.

The numbers mentioned by the National Post article are from March 2021 Statistics Canada release Household economic well-being during the COVID-19 pandemic, …, first quarter to third quarter of 2020.

The $3,000 and $2,500 statistics for second quarter of 2020 are household advantage amounts, not individual advantage amounts.

It is quite possible for the parents of the household to be still working from home fully and for a few of their children to be ahead from the CERB.

The children didn't earn as much as the CERB in 2020 before they were laid off. However, the children still qualified for the CERB as they each earned more than $5,000 in 2019.

Such a household would easily be thousands of dollars ahead from the CERB in Q2 2020. But, not unjustly so.

May 28, 2021
12:39 am
Loonie
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I believe the 5000 was a minimum, so the CERB applied equally to those who had in the previous year made significantly more money than that and could have had reasonable expectation and need of making it again in 2020.

I'm sure there are some people who got it who could have done without it just as there were undoubtedly some who needed it but didn't qualify. Things like that always happen with a new programme, especially one created and delivered under duress.

Kids who save and put their money into their education are likely to earn more, contribute more to society, pay more taxes, be less of a burden on health care etc. I wish them well.

Please write your comments in the forum.