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April 3, 2020
4:25 pm
Briguy
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Briguy said
I just looked up for fun if you can prebuy gas, and there is one place in USA where you can do that, but none in Canada. In my google research it mentioned UGA. United States Gasoline Fund, LP (UGA) is an ETF that invests in futures contracts for gasoline, other types of gasoline, crude oil, diesel-heating oil, natural gas and other petroleum-based fuels. It's gone down 30%in the last 5 days,50% in the last 5 years. Maybe @Doug or @Bud can comment on the ETF.  

@Doug UGA has gone up 24% in 10 days if you bought it when I mentioned it on March 24th . You could have funded a year's tuition 🙂

April 3, 2020
5:56 pm
Doug
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Briguy said

@Doug UGA has gone up 24% in 10 days if you bought it when I mentioned it on March 24th . You could have funded a year's tuition 🙂  

What's the USD/CAD dollar done since? Is that factored into your return? 🙂

Thankfully, after this semester, I will be done, though my diploma receipt is delayed until the fall due to COVID-19 as they've delayed the June convocation ceremonies until then. However, I'll still get an official letter and transcript beforehand. sf-cool

Market timing is very hard to do, though I'm not sure about UGA. I'm also less certain whether to buy shares in a gold miner or a physical bullion fund. If the former, I'm partial to Newmont Goldcorp and maybe Alamos Gold. If the latter, I'm partial to Sprott's Physical Gold Bullion Fund ETF. It's allocated and it trades near its net asset value. The Mint's exchange traded receipts are interesting and would probably be my second choice, but the management fees are a bit high and eat into the total return in years when gold is down.

Cheers,
Doug

April 3, 2020
7:10 pm
Norman1
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Briguy said
I wish I could prebuy about 1000 litres of gasoline right now and use them later over the next year. They should sell gas station gift cards in Litres instead of dollars.

One can through the futures market.

However, the gasoline future contract is quite large: 21,000 gallons for an e-mini contract and 42,000 gallons for the regular contract.

April 3, 2020
8:15 pm
Doug
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Norman1 said

Briguy said
I wish I could prebuy about 1000 litres of gasoline right now and use them later over the next year. They should sell gas station gift cards in Litres instead of dollars.

One can through the futures market.

However, the gasoline future contract is quite large: 21,000 gallons for an e-mini contract and 42,000 gallons for the regular contract.  

Interesting, Norman. How do you actually take delivery on a futures contract, though? That I've never looked into. 🙂

Cheers,
Doug

April 10, 2020
9:33 am
Bud
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If Gold is a store of value why aren't central banks buying

April 10, 2020
9:49 am
Bruford
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Because central banks are government entities, and governments have a vested interest in maintaining the fiat currency status quo. If central banks were seen to be buying gold at this time, it would undermine the government narrative that "all is fine, all will correct itself"

April 10, 2020
9:59 am
Norman1
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Doug said

Interesting, Norman. How do you actually take delivery on a futures contract, though? That I've never looked into. 🙂

According to the chapter 191 of the rulebook, for that NYMEX 42,000 US gallon (1,000 US barrel) standard gasoline contract, physical delivery involves a rendezvous in New York Harbour:

191105. DELIVERY
Delivery shall be made free-on-board (“F.O.B.”) sellers ex-shore facility in New York Harbor with all duties, entitlements, taxes, fees and other charges imposed prior to, or as a result of, delivery paid by the seller. Delivery shall be made in accordance with applicable Federal, State and local laws. Delivery shall comply with all State laws related to oxygen content. Buyer shall reimburse seller for any gasoline tax as had been or will be paid by the seller. At buyer’s option, such delivery shall be made by any of the following methods:

1. By delivery into buyer’s barge;
2. By delivery into buyer’s tanker, if buyer can take delivery in such manner at the facility used by seller;
2. By delivery into buyer’s pipeline, if buyer can take delivery in such manner at the facility used by seller;
3. By stock transfer of title to the buyer, if the facility used by seller allows such transfer;
4. By book transfer if the seller agrees to such transfer;
5. By intra-facility transfer ("pump-over"), if the facility used by seller allows such transfer; or
6. By inter-facility transfer ("pump-over"), if both facilities used by seller and buyer allow such transfer.

For the purpose of these rules, New York Harbor shall extend from the East River west of Hunts Point; Gowanus Bay west of the Hamilton Avenue Bridge; the Hudson River south of George Washington Bridge; the Upper Bay; the Narrows; the Lower Bay west of Norton Point; the Newark Bay; the Hackensack River south of the Witt-Penn Bridge; the Passaic River south of the Pulaski Skyway Bridge; the Kill Van Kull; the Arthur Kill and the Raritan River east of the Garden State Parkway Bridge.

Lots of contract buyers will cash settle the contract. They will sell the future contract before delivery date and then immediately buy the gasoline from a local source.

The resulting profit or loss on the contract will then offset the change in price from the local source, not including transportation costs from New York Habour to the local source.

April 10, 2020
10:09 am
Bill
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Bruford, governments yes, but way more critically pretty much all of us have a vested interest in maintaining the fiat currency status quo and related narratives.

April 10, 2020
11:02 am
Norman1
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The central banks already have lots of the gold in existence.

According to the World Gold Council: Central Bank Gold Agreements, the central banks have about 20% of the gold ever mined because of history:

Collectively, at the end of 2018, central banks held around 33,200 tonnes of gold, which is approximately one-fifth of all the gold ever mined. Moreover, these holdings are highly concentrated in the advanced economies of Western Europe and North America, a legacy of the days of the gold standard. This means that central banks have immense pricing power in the gold markets.

April 10, 2020
12:07 pm
Bruford
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Bill said
Bruford, governments yes, but way more critically pretty much all of us have a vested interest in maintaining the fiat currency status quo and related narratives.  

Yes we all have a vested interest in maintaining the status quo, but alas what to do when the status quo is not maintainable? Governments the world over have enthralled their citizens with a bigger and bigger yolk of debt. When you see that it is unsustainable, enlightened self interest is in order. That is where Gold/Silver or your preference of what you believe will preserve wealth in this environment.

April 10, 2020
5:35 pm
Loonie
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In the end, if things are really really bad, all that will matter is what you can trade your "investment" for in order to meet your costs of existing. It needs to be something that can be widely and readily recognized as having a certain trade value, at the least. This function is normally filled by hard currency.

Personally, if you offered me gold or silver, I wouldn't know how to assess it or what it was worth as an instrument of trade. I know they come with certain markings on them to indicate what they are but I, personally would not know if these were legitimate or not.

April 30, 2020
11:53 am
Bud
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Gold disconnect between price n demand

Price of gold is going to take a hit as reports suggest demand in India and elsewhere has dropped as people dont have money to buy for jewellery etc. Reports central banks including Venezuela selling to raise funds

"Reuters (Refinitiv) survey just released shows global jewelry fabrication volumes, which typically account for around 55% of total physical demand for gold, fell 40% in the first quarter, year-on-year. Investment demand was mixed, with retail investment, which consists of bars and coins, posting an 11% year-on-year drop. Physical gold demand fell to 753 metric tons in the first quarter, the lowest levels since 2009 as higher gold prices led to a drop in consumption. The biggest declines were recorded in Asia at down over 43% year-on-year. Chinese demand recorded a 62% decline in jewelry fabrication in the period."

Bloomberg - "India’s Gold Demand Falls 36% In Q1 Due To Volatile Prices, Economic Uncertainties: World Gold Council

Indian gold demand in the first quarter of 2020 dropped due to a combination of factors such as high and volatile prices, economic uncertainties and towards the end of the quarter, severe logistical freeze following lockdown," he added.

Meanwhile, total jewellery demand during the quarter also declined by 41 percent at 73.9 tonne compared to 125.4 tonne in January-March of 2019. In value terms, jewellery demand saw a drop of 27 percent at Rs 27,230 crore as against Rs 37,070 crore in the same quarter of 2019."

May 10, 2020
4:17 pm
Oscar
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The IMF states on its website that it is one of the worlds "largest official holder of gold". I think that's the same organization that all the countries of the world are indebted to , while ironically being members at the same time.

https://www.imf.org/en/About

January 3, 2021
3:54 pm
Bud
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Wonder what Winnie has to say about this

"Rick Rieder, the chief investment officer of fixed income BlackRock, has said the digital currency could replace gold."

January 4, 2021
9:57 am
Winnie
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Bud, I only can say, what I know, seriously.

I don't know about Rick Rieder, BlackRock and don't want to look in Google, I don't want to learn about them.

The only thing I know, that for a few decades value of my gold increased around 10% per year each and every single year until now.

I didn't expected so much, and if gold value will drop sharply soon in favor of the digital currency, no problem at all.

I can be left without any increase and I can experience massive losses too.

It's life and it's unpredictable, as far as I understand that thing.

I never planned to invest in gold, I just collected gold, because I like that shiny metal.

Why? I can give you an answer, but it's so strange and unbelievable, so better not to do that here.

January 4, 2021
4:27 pm
Bill
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Gold has been a store of value for thousands of years, everywhere, it's prevailed over the fall of all civilizations. Off the top of my head digital currency has at least 2 big strikes against it in comparison: it requires stable & widespread electricity production and distribution, and it has nowhere near the track record of gold yet. Seems a little premature to say the latter will replace the former, or maybe the BlackRock fellow is just using his podium to promote something that's in his interest.

January 4, 2021
4:57 pm
Norman1
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One can make a tooth filling out of gold. Can't with bitcoin.

I can transfer ownership and value of an ounce of gold to someone in a few seconds, without involving a third person, by just handing it to her. No public record. Can't do that with bitcoin.

Need to have a third party accept my request to transfer the bitcoin, from my wallet to and her wallet, and record it in the blockchain. Right now, that takes about 20 minutes at least. Transfer is then public.

January 5, 2021
3:37 am
RetirEd
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Bitcoin is neither the only nor the best and brightest digital currency concept.

RetirEd

But I still like our Loonies and Twonies.

RetirEd

January 5, 2021
6:15 am
Bud
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JPMorgan says bitcoin could rise long-term as it competes with gold as an “alternative” currency

I agree with Norm at least gold has physical use and for jewellery. On the other hand we all accept fiat currency.

Credit to Winnie

January 5, 2021
10:18 am
Norman1
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We all accept fiat currency because the government accepts unlimited amounts of it for payment of taxes and services.

Does one really believe that anyone would accept bitcoin if they couldn't find anyone who would exchange it for a fiat currency like US dollars?

A cryptocurrency is quite easy to create. Some software and a bunch of data. No-one is going to accept a digital NormanCoin as payment for a $40,000 car if the seller of the car couldn't find someone to exchange the NormanCoin for $40,000 or a government to accept it as payment for $40,000 of taxes.

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