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Deflation is here
May 20, 2020
11:52 pm
Vatox
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May 21, 2020
5:27 am
Bud
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Im thinking about another interest spike deflation or not due to inept handling of the situation

May 21, 2020
6:10 am
Bill
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What happens with indexed pensions, and OAS, etc, with deflation? Things are getting cheaper, shouldn't they be decreased?

May 21, 2020
8:01 am
cruzinalong
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Bill said
What happens with indexed pensions, and OAS, etc, with deflation? Things are getting cheaper, shouldn't they be decreased?  

THE OAS is adjusted quarterly in January, April, July and October based on CPI of previous quarter. IF CPI is zero/negative there is no change to OAS. It remains the same until CPI exceeds previous high. The CPP is adjusted annually in January. I have no comment on indexed pensions.

May 21, 2020
9:21 am
Vatox
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It’s just one month of deflation. And a very low amount. It will need to continue each month and pick up greater speed if it’s going to have a decreasing impact on indexed values. The effect on TFSA contributions could be lasting. If the deflation continues and increases, it would be interesting if our TFSA limit decreases.

May 21, 2020
11:25 am
Bud
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vatox when shall the stock market expect the end of the world.

May 21, 2020
12:06 pm
Vatox
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Bud said
vatox when shall the stock market expect the end of the world.  

Lol, I have no idea.

My stocks portfolio is currently holding about 3% of what I had invested 2 years ago. I’ve been selling for two years, so I figured it was going to be “End of Days” a while back.

May 21, 2020
12:35 pm
Loonie
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I can't read the OP.
However, I imagine the extremely low price of oil has a lot to do with it, and that will not last.

May 21, 2020
1:25 pm
Vatox
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Loonie said
I can't read the OP.
However, I imagine the extremely low price of oil has a lot to do with it, and that will not last.  

Yes, excluding energy, inflation is 1.6%.

May 21, 2020
1:26 pm
Vatox
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Sorry Loonie, here is the link to the full report.

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/200520/dq200520a-eng.htm

May 21, 2020
4:09 pm
Loonie
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thx

May 21, 2020
5:48 pm
cruzinalong
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Vatox said
It’s just one month of deflation. And a very low amount. It will need to continue each month and pick up greater speed if it’s going to have a decreasing impact on indexed values. The effect on TFSA contributions could be lasting. If the deflation continues and increases, it would be interesting if our TFSA limit decreases.  

They will hold at $6,000.

There are plenty of people that do not contribute the maximum. Everyone is UNIQUE.

May 21, 2020
5:51 pm
cruzinalong
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Vatox said

Lol, I have no idea.

My stocks portfolio is currently holding about 3% of what I had invested 2 years ago. I’ve been selling for two years, so I figured it was going to be “End of Days” a while back.  

My portfolio is almost 100% stock. I know many that claim they are 100% stock.

May 21, 2020
6:38 pm
Bill
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Not so sure about the $6000 TFSA limit holding, my reading of Income Tax Act 117.1(1)(b)(ii) is that that could be a negative number, so enough deflation could eventually cause a drop. But I'm not 100% sure, happy to be corrected.

May 22, 2020
8:16 am
Norman1
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Bill said
Not so sure about the $6000 TFSA limit holding, my reading of Income Tax Act 117.1(1)(b)(ii) is that that could be a negative number, so enough deflation could eventually cause a drop. But I'm not 100% sure, happy to be corrected.

I didn't see an obvious floor of zero on the Income Tax Act 117.1(1) annual adjustments calculated with September 30 CPI.

Without such a floor, the TFSA contribution room handed out each year, by the definition of "TFSA dollar limit" in 207.01 (1), and things like personal amount could go down if the year-over-year CPI change is negative in September.

May 22, 2020
12:09 pm
Loonie
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I was under the impression that the limit could only move in increments of $500 and when inflation changes totalled a certain amount, typically taking several years. Would that still be the case? We must have some inflation credits, so to speak, as the limit did not increase for this year.
(FWIW, I think the current deflation report is an aberration due to unimagined temporary low oil prices.)

May 22, 2020
12:19 pm
Bill
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Yes, that would be the case, the calculation is the same, up or down. So it would take a time of sustained deflation to use up the "inflation credits" and then accumulate enough more deflation to go down by $500, in the absence of falling-off-the-cliff deflationary economic series of events.

May 22, 2020
12:34 pm
Norman1
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There may only be $250 of "inflation credits". Something like $1 of deflation would bring the balance to $249 and trigger a rounding down to $5,500.

The exact TFSA contribution room given out, prescribed in the Income Tax Act, is $5,000 in 2009 adjusted for inflation and rounded to a multiple of $500:

TFSA dollar limit for a calendar year means,

(d) for each year after 2015, the amount (rounded to the nearest multiple of $500, or if that amount is equidistant from two such consecutive multiples, to the higher multiple) that is equal to $5,000 adjusted for each year after 2009 in the manner set out in section 117.1

May 22, 2020
2:00 pm
Vatox
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The 2019 indexation value, which was used for the 2020 TFSA contribution limit, was $5958. It would take at least 3.5% deflation for all of the 2020 indexation factor to drop back to $5500. We already have plenty of months with inflation starting from October 2019. The remaining five months left would have to be nasty deflation numbers.

May 22, 2020
3:06 pm
mechone
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Really you could have fooled me "Deflation" gas is 95 cents a liter in GTA oil is 30 bucks a barrel . If oil were to go back to 60 dollars a barrel ,would that mean 1.90 a liter ? Before this happened oil was at 60 and we were paying around a 1.20
Food prices have gone thru the roof , deflation fake news

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