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Bank of Canada Rate Decision December 2021
December 23, 2021
6:04 pm
mordko
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Kidd said
Mordko. From that same Ontario ministry of health web site. 45.6% of those in hospital are unvaccinated. These are the government's numbers NOT mine.

https://data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/274b819c-5d69-4539-a4db-f2950794138c

I have been tested twice, the last time being yesterday morning and... I AM ONE OF THE UNVAXXED.  

That means that an unvaxxed over 60 is 25 times more likely to end up in hospital than a partially or fully vaxxed over 60, given that:

1. The vast majority of people ending up in hospitals are over 60 and
2. 97% of over 60s are vaxxed

https://www.publichealthontario.ca/-/media/documents/ncov/epi/covid-19-vaccine-uptake-ontario-epi-summary.pdf?la=en

Note that fully vaccinated make up only 50% of those in the hospital and something like 25% of those in ICUs. So, a chances for someone not fully vaxxed to end up in ICU are 100 times higher.

Of course the boosters make this disbalance even more pronounced

December 24, 2021
5:23 am
savemoresaveoften
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Kidd said
Mordko. From that same Ontario ministry of health web site. 45.6% of those in hospital are unvaccinated. These are the government's numbers NOT mine.

https://data.ontario.ca/en/dataset/covid-19-vaccine-data-in-ontario/resource/274b819c-5d69-4539-a4db-f2950794138c

I have been tested twice, the last time being yesterday morning and... I AM ONE OF THE UNVAXXED.  

Over 80% of the population are vaccinated. If the vaccine provides zero protection/benefits. the number being hospitalize would be 4-to-1, same in ICU.
Its important to remind oneself, the vaccine protects one from serious illness, does not mean you can go into a covid filled room and expected to be test negative 95% of the time. Also it makes the stat even harder to be meaningful when some contract covid but die from complication due to existing condition, is that covid death or not...

December 24, 2021
5:57 am
RetirEd
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Also to consider:

1. People under a certain age (in stages) got vaccinated later than those over 12 (or other stages). But more younger persons are now counted among the vaccine-eligible infected, and they are also less likely to have severe disease. (They were excluded from calculations before being vaccine-eligible.) This affects calculations.

2. Older and less healthy people got vaccinated first and are wearing off first. But they are still not dying as frequently as the unvaccinated.

I find it hard to imagine this will all be easy to calculate until we have more data - but it's coming in hard and fast now.

Now, THIS following section is NOT specific to the current time, but:

IN GENERAL, infectious diseases tend to get faster-spreading and less lethal as they continue to circulate. Diseases that kill off their victims quickly can't continue to spread in the absence of factors such as exceptional transmissibility or cultural practices such as Ebola's spread due to local traditions of touching the deceased at their funerals.

Similarly, infectious diseases that can spread before symptoms appear have an advantage. This is why SARS was so much easier to defeat (despite its high transmissibility) than COVID-19 varaints.
RetirEd

December 28, 2021
8:48 am
Norman1
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Kidd said
… Expand the field headings, Ontario health gave the numbers without any calculations required by me.

UNvaccinated in Ontario, 34.86 per 100,000 tested positive.
Vaccinated in Ontario, 38.79 per 100,000 tested positive.

That is not surprising.

Unboosted vaccination only provides 15% to 30% protection against infection by the Omicron variant. In contrast, unboosted vaccination provides around 90% protection against infection by previous variants.

That just reflects the effects of the activities the vaccinated are allowed to do and that those activities negate the 15% to 30% vaccine protection against Omicron infection.

These are the Ontario per-100K infection rates, daily and seven-day moving average, before Omicron. The rates show substantial reduction of infection in the fully vaccinated:

Date Cases per 100K (Daily) Cases per 100K (7 day average)
Not
Vaccinated
Partially
Vaccinated
Fully
Vaccinated
Not
Vaccinated
Partially
Vaccinated
Fully
Vaccinated
2021-11-15 8.88 4.86 1.92 8.69 4.13 2.12
2021-11-16 7.34 3.83 1.71 8.76 4.14 2.14
2021-11-17 7.79 4.08 1.83 8.94 4.41 2.13
2021-11-18 10.05 6.08 2.84 8.91 4.77 2.22
2021-11-19 12.04 4.83 2.91 9.31 4.76 2.34
2021-11-20 11.59 3.79 2.59 9.57 4.64 2.36
2021-11-21 10.98 4.51 2.98 9.81 4.57 2.40
2021-11-22 8.85 5.21 2.57 9.81 4.62 2.49
2021-11-23 9.06 6.86 2.39 10.05 5.05 2.59
2021-11-24 9.23 3.23 2.13 10.26 4.93 2.63
2021-11-25 11.23 4.43 2.95 10.43 4.69 2.65

These are the recent Ontario per-100K infection rates with Omicron spreading. Falling reduction against infection in the fully vaccinated who aren't boosted yet:

Date Cases per 100K (Daily) Cases per 100K (7 day average)
Not
Vaccinated
Partially
Vaccinated
Fully
Vaccinated
Not
Vaccinated
Partially
Vaccinated
Fully
Vaccinated
2021-12-15 21.01 8.15 9.27 19.14 8.10 7.14
2021-12-16 23.28 14.40 13.56 19.95 8.58 8.30
2021-12-17 26.63 18.47 18.77 20.92 10.26 10.07
2021-12-18 24.82 19.20 20.69 21.57 11.91 11.93
2021-12-19 31.64 24.94 26.34 23.38 14.26 14.71
2021-12-20 26.26 20.31 24.60 24.29 16.10 17.20
2021-12-21 23.82 22.13 22.10 25.35 18.23 19.33
2021-12-22 26.60 28.15 28.65 26.15 21.09 22.10
2021-12-23 34.86 35.52 38.79 27.80 24.10 25.71
2021-12-24 55.53 55.78 65.54 31.93 29.43 32.39
December 28, 2021
7:29 pm
Bobbyjet11
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Some analysts are predicting three, possibly four rate hikes in 2022. If that is the upcoming trend it could cause havoc for those who have locked in interest rates for any length of time. I took out a 3-yr GIC in the Fall that looked good at the time but if analysts are correct the 2.5 % is not going to fare very well.

December 28, 2021
8:07 pm
Kidd
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Bobbyjet11 said
Some analysts are predicting three, possibly four rate hikes in 2022. If that is the upcoming trend it could cause havoc for those who have locked in interest rates for any length of time. I took out a 3-yr GIC in the Fall that looked good at the time but if analysts are correct the 2.5 % is not going to fare very well.  

Hi Bobby. The BOC has never shown a concern in regards to, the savers, or those on fixed income. The sole purpose of the BOC's action plan was to create cheap debt, get liquidity into the marketplace. When the rates go up, the pinch will be on those in debt. The savings rate will lag behind any borrowing rate increase. The savers may wait months to see the reflective rate increase.

December 30, 2021
9:03 pm
mordko
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Bobbyjet11 said
Some analysts are predicting three, possibly four rate hikes in 2022. If that is the upcoming trend it could cause havoc for those who have locked in interest rates for any length of time. I took out a 3-yr GIC in the Fall that looked good at the time but if analysts are correct the 2.5 % is not going to fare very well.  

Rate hikes decrease inflation. Lower inflation will improve real return on your 3-yr GIC (or rather decrease your loss).

December 30, 2021
10:07 pm
Kidd
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The problem which i and others in this forum have stated. Interest rates were artificially held low, too low, for too long.

The purpose of an interest rate increase is to cool a hot or over stimulated economy. It slows an economy down. Some of the affects are.

If it costs more to borrow, there's less borrowing. Less buying.
Less buying, Unemployment goes up
Dollar goes up in value, exports become less desirable to other countries. Unemployment goes up
Imports cost less but the savings will NOT be passed to consumer, so prices remain high.
Higher interest rates, pull money out of the stock market.
As stated in another thread. Businesses sell shares to expand, if fewer people are buying shares, stock prices drop, stock market drops.
Higher interest rates, debt repayment costs more (inflationary)
If mortgages cost more. House prices will drop.
House foreclosures.
The repo man becomes very busy. Cars, boats, tvs etc.

December 31, 2021
8:34 am
Bobbyjet11
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mordko said

Rate hikes decrease inflation. Lower inflation will improve real return on your 3-yr GIC (or rather decrease your loss).  

True but my point was: I may have jumped the gun in investing in a 3-year GIC when all indications were that interest rates were rising - I just didn't expect rates to rise this quickly (3 or 4 times alone this year is predicted). In a few months, chances are that some banks will offer a 3-year GIC rate higher than 2.5%.

December 31, 2021
9:38 am
christinad
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Isn't omicron the wild card here and might rates go up later? I can't keep up with all the news.

December 31, 2021
10:15 am
savemoresaveoften
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Bobbyjet11 said

I may have jumped the gun in investing in a 3-year GIC when all indications were that interest rates were rising - I just didn't expect rates to rise this quickly (3 or 4 times alone this year is predicted). In a few months, chances are that some banks will offer a 3-year GIC rate higher than 2.5%.  

It depends how quickly 3-year rate rises above the rate you already locked in today.
Locking in a 1y rate and then renew at a higher 2y rate may not be better than ur 3y rate starting today.

January 13, 2022
3:15 pm
mechone
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JP Morgan claims interest rates will be going up in Canada January 26 and there will be 5 increases this year taking us to 1.50 . I hope so

January 14, 2022
6:44 am
savemoresaveoften
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mechone said
JP Morgan claims interest rates will be going up in Canada January 26 and there will be 5 increases this year taking us to 1.50 . I hope so  

Even with ON at 1.5% prob means 5y gets to 3.75-4%. That will make it equivalent to 2020 early covid.
To aggresive combat inflation, short rates will rise much faster than long rates, with yield curve inverted at the end. That will always be the case in my mind, whoever think "this time it is different" is more wishful thinking. Also with majority of mortgage usually 5 years and longer term borrowing, those rates will be kept artificually lower and longer.
Most retail dont borrow at the overnite rate, nor can you.

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