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Email this1:04 pm
December 17, 2016
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From the National Post -
David Rosenberg: Bank of Canada makes 90-degree turn with its latest economic statement
Erases rate-hike expectations planted six weeks ago, the fundamentals for which have now disappeared over the horizon
9:42 pm
October 21, 2013
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Either BoC is very fickle, or the whole thing could change again in a few weeks or months.
The point is that we can't know anything until it happens.
1:55 am
February 27, 2018
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So will the next 90 degree turn, turn us in a " forwards" or "backwards" direction? This is so confusing, let's see... there are 2 cups in a pint, 2 pints in a quart.... my left hand is, North. Wait, what day of the week is this?
It's a good thing our fiscal budgets balance themselves automatically otherwise we'd be in big trouble. I'm thinking of taking "drama" in school because there isn't enough of it in my life. Know of any good "drama" teachers who aren't too busy? Is it "who" or "whom"¿
Peter these math problems to post my post are getting harder, or is it just me? Damn.
2:47 am
May 24, 2016
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Oh dear, Kidd, it’s plain to see that you are confused - in Canada, as in the UK, 2.5 cups = 1 pint (20 fluid ounces). In the U.S.A. a pint is 2 cups (16 fluid ounces). I can’t help you with North or South or day of the week. Do what I do, Google it!
9:55 pm
February 20, 2018
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Avery Schenfeld i find is the most reliable economist
Rosenberg i recall is full of hot air
6:27 pm
October 11, 2015
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I heard Rosenberg speak a few weeks ago. He pulled out all his graphs and charts--the talk was way above my head. The bottom line: he says that we are at the end of the bull market and headed into a recession. I'm not sure where you are supposed to park your money--or pull things out of investments (and pay capital gains?). Very depressing.
8:08 pm
February 27, 2018
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If you watch the business channels you will see a bunch of well dressed, overpaid, so called experts guessing why the stock market is moving, in the direction it's moving and that's all they are doing, guessing. They are being paid to say something, dead air is not great for ad revenue. "Oh... trump and china are friends now, that's why the dow is moving up today." Truth be told, trump has no friends, even his dog dislikes him.
Back in the day... there were correlations. If something moved up, something else moved down. Example being. If the America dollar went up in value, oil and gold went down, because the commodities are priced in American dollars.
If the american interest rates go up, the dow should go down and the value of the american currency should go up. There was a logic to how the market worked. It was based on fundamentals, if a company made money, sales were good. The stock price reflected the performance.
My true beliefs on where canada should be, are far more negative than Top it Up's and Vatox's but i've been calling for the so called "end" for so long, my voice is hoarse. Being retired, i personally have no money in the stock market. I don't need the gamble.
10:04 pm
April 6, 2013
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dentgal said
I heard Rosenberg speak a few weeks ago. He pulled out all his graphs and charts--the talk was way above my head. The bottom line: he says that we are at the end of the bull market and headed into a recession. I'm not sure where you are supposed to park your money--or pull things out of investments (and pay capital gains?). Very depressing.
I'm sure astrologers can give similar over-my-head presentations as well, with detailed star charts and horoscopes instead of bond yield curves and stock charts. They too are equally unpredictive of the future.
According to Fortune magazine article Rosenberg '99%' sure of U.S. recession, David Rosenberg made a similar prediction in June 2011, that there would be a recession by the end of that year. Still no sign of it yet and we are now approaching the end of 2018!
I'm sure if he calls "a recession by the end of the year" enough years, he will get it right eventually. Kind of like "a broken clock shows the correct time twice a day."
3:44 am
December 17, 2016
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Norman1 said
I'm sure astrologers can give similar over-my-head presentations as well, with detailed star charts and horoscopes instead of bond yield curves and stock charts. They too are equally unpredictive of the future.
According to Fortune magazine article Rosenberg '99%' sure of U.S. recession, David Rosenberg made a similar prediction in June 2011, that there would be a recession by the end of that year. Still no sign of it yet and we are now approaching the end of 2018!
I'm sure if he calls "a recession by the end of the year" enough years, he will get it right eventually. Kind of like "a broken clock shows the correct time twice a day."
A simple google search of "us recession 2011" renders a gadzillion articles predicting the same - silly to just single out Rosenberg as some sort of rogue economist who never got it right.
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From CNBC in 2016
The chances of a recession in the United States are at their highest levels since the fall of 2011, according to the CNBC Fed Survey.
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Couch potato hindsight is a wonderful thing, ain't it!
3:57 am
February 27, 2018
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Sorry Top it Up. You and dentgal were the ones who mentioned Rosenberg in your original posts. Norman1 was just following up with... what the hell does rosenberg know?
My real concern is. Does "dentgal" refer to driving a car, or a career?
4:18 am
December 17, 2016
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@ Kidd, the National Post mentioned Rosenberg, not me i.e. the link.
4:26 am
December 17, 2016
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Just a heads up from Bloomberg 9 December 2018
Wall Street’s biggest banks are scouring U.S. data for signals of an impending recession. On balance, they’ve been finding that a 2019 downturn still isn’t likely -- though it’s becoming slightly more so.
and the article NEVER mentioned Rosenberg ... hmmm.
2:40 pm
December 17, 2016
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From CNN Business -
Nearly half of US CFOs fear a 2019 recession
America's finance chiefs fear the economic expansion is nearly over.
Almost half (48.6%) of US chief financial officers believe the United States will be in recession by the end of next year, according to the Duke University/CFO Global Business Outlook survey released on Wednesday.
And 82% of CFOs surveyed by Duke believe that a recession will begin by the end of 2020.
"The end is near for the near-decade-long burst of global economic growth," Duke finance professor John Graham said in a statement.
The CFO survey's pessimism about 2019 will raise eyebrows because mainstream economists are still projecting steady, albeit slower, growth next year.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/12/12/economy/recession-economy-cfos-duke/index.html
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