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Almost half of Canadians barely afloat
February 20, 2019
11:00 pm
Vatox
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February 20, 2019
11:20 pm
Vatox
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From the poll..

“Saskatchewan and Manitoba residents were found to be most worried about insolvency, 56 per cent and 48 per cent, respectively. British Columbia residents were the most optimistic, with 41 per cent citing concern”.

February 21, 2019
12:26 am
Loonie
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BC has the highest percentage of retirees, so their finances will be more stable.

We saw a graphic example of this problem recently. I believe it was in Sydney NS, when a call centre went belly up. Within a couple of weeks some of the employees were reported to be going to the food bank.
Of course, call centres are notoriously poor paying jobs. I don't know how people can get ahead or save on $11/hr.

The situation described in the poll may not be as dire as it seems, however. "The polling industry’s professional body, the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population."
In other words, not statistically valid.

February 21, 2019
4:33 am
NorthernRaven
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Loonie said
The situation described in the poll may not be as dire as it seems, however. "The polling industry’s professional body, the Marketing Research and Intelligence Association, says online surveys cannot be assigned a margin of error because they do not randomly sample the population."
In other words, not statistically valid.  

Actually, for the version they conducted in Sept 2018, they say the following:

The latest Index data was compiled by Ipsos on behalf of MNP LTD between September 10 and September 17, 2018. For this survey, a sample of 2,003 Canadians from the Ipsos I-Say panel was interviewed online. The precision of online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the results are accurate to within +/- 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20, of what the results would have been had all Canadian adults been polled. Credibility intervals are wider among subsets of the population. This represents the sixth wave of the MNP Consumer Debt Index.

A 2018 version also says "Weighting was then employed to balance demographics to ensure that the sample's composition reflects that of the adult population according to Census data and to provide results intended to approximate the sample universe."

There would certainly be questions about how representative the Ipsos panel members would be of their equivalent age/sex/whatever population groups (there might be a selection bias in those willing to work with Ipsos), and other sampling concerns, but I'm not sure why the Globe would put that generic blurb at the bottom.

February 21, 2019
6:17 am
Loonie
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I don't think they'd invented "credibility intervals" back when I took Statistics in the 1960s or 70s!

I do know, from contacts in the industry, that polling has become more and more difficult because of the fact that many people's phone numbers are not accessible and other reasons I can't recall. It has become more difficult to do random sampling, perhaps next to impossible, because of these new variables.

Sounds to me like this new tool has been invented in order to compensate while still keeping the polling industry going!

To me, the question is open as to whether it's reliable as I don't know enough about it. But I do know that the problem is still considered to be an issue by the industry.

I would be surprised if the Globe writer was so well informed that they were able to draw their conclusion because of what they knew about the limitations of this tool, but it's not out of the question.

February 21, 2019
9:38 am
Denise Milani
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Part of the problem is financial restraint is not controlled in the household, credit is too easy and the younger group is being manipulated by major car dealerships. https://www.moneysense.ca/columns/ask-moneysense/should-jack-take-the-pull-ahead-offer-his-car-dealer-called-him-with/
I was approached yesterday and my dumb son in law has fallen for the latter 3 times.

February 21, 2019
9:50 am
Brimleychen
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I think this is part of tactics yearly during the RRSP season to scare people to give their FIs money. sf-cool

The sky is not falling down, and you don't see this when shopping in COSTCO.

February 21, 2019
8:03 pm
Loonie
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Beware of over-generalizing based on your dumb son-in-law. I know lots of young people who don't even want to own a car - and they probably won't. i'm thinking of 3 of them immediately who are in 30s, one is 40. Two of them have children; all 3 have mortgages.

February 21, 2019
9:06 pm
Norman1
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I suspect the son-in-law is one of those people who are just looking for a good excuse to get the new car.

I've met people like that. They just love to start with the most expensive choice and work down to the most expensive one they can bamboozle their partner into agreeing to buy.

In contrast, more rational people start with the least expensive choice and work up to the least expensive one that does the job needed.

February 22, 2019
1:46 am
Loonie
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Houses are selling well on my street in overpriced TO, even in the iciest winter I can recall. Young families are buying them, and they aren't on the market very long.
On my block, the last 2 sold to young couples and a third to a divorced dad with part-time kids. Sellers were all retired.
One just sold last week, another about 2 or 3 months ago, the third late last summer. Nothing available at the moment. And the prices are solid. The last one sold for 14% over asking. Last summer's was 5% over asking. Not sure about the other one but it was over asking.

The way I look at it, with today's prices, these young families could not afford a down payment without family help. They just haven't lived long enough unless they were internet entrepreneurs at age 12, which is possible but rare.
Mummy and daddy and grandma would only have given them what they could afford without risking their own security. So, in due course or if needed, the older generations could likely provide additional funding. Just because all their income is spoken for doesn't necessarily mean they don't have access to additional funds.

February 22, 2019
11:21 am
Vatox
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Loonie said
Just because all their income is spoken for doesn't necessarily mean they don't have access to additional funds.  

Are those additional funds a gift or early inheritance? Because, if it’s expected to be paid back, then even an interest free and flexible payback loan is more debt.

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