TD Economics: BoC done raising rates December 2020, at the earliest | General financial discussion | Discussion forum

I don't know about 2020. Much can change in 20 months, as it did in just the past 12 months. I think such forecasts are silly, if not perverse, grandstanding.

By Spring 2020, energy prices could spring upward, Enbridge Line 3 could be in construction, Notley's trains could start operating moving dilbit to both the Gulf Coast and Portland OR. That would result in an increase in capex spend, increased royalties and taxes to the federal treasury.

That doesn't even count a potential burst in Chinese GDP growth and increased exports to them, etc.

I would limit crystal ball gazing to saying no more increases through the end of 2019.

The inversion of the bond yield curve is a definite indicator for a coming recession. The 5 year note being below the BoC overnight rate will begin to put pressure for interest rate decreases, but not just yet, and hopefully not ever. Debts are a huge weight over current conditions, as governments, households, corporations and investors won’t be able to infuse spending to recover from a recession.

I agree, Loonie, didn't someone say something once about predicting 10 of the last 3 recessions? I don't think it was Vatox.

Any hint of a down turn will be met by increased government spending (today's electorate demands it) via more debt and/or some version of "money printing", and the party will go on.

Top It Up said
One thing is certain, those who locked into the GIC rates offered over the past few months are smiling now because we're likely going to see a softening in both GIC and HISA rates - always go with the bird in the hand, I always say.  

Compared to a year ago, rates are still decent despite the decreases. We’ve had such poor rates for so long that they still look juicy.

Just watched another video about the inverted yield curve ( short term interest rates better than long term interest rates ). https://business.financialpost.com/investing/why-everybody-is-talking-about-the-inverted-yield-curve-and-what-it-means-to-canada?video_autoplay=true

The commentator states there is usually a recession about 18 months after the yield inverts. Recession usually means lower stock market, fewer jobs, less housing starts. The 5 yr GIC ladder strategy is not working well at the moment since interest rates are becoming closer to shorter term GIC rates. So I can see some advantage if you missed out on the 4% interest 5 yr GIC's in going shorter term in GIC's eg. 12-18 months, and buying more equities 18 months from now if the stock market does take a dip.