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Email this2:35 pm
November 19, 2022
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How long before we see negative interest rates again (after the inflation) ?
8:43 am
January 12, 2019
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.
Meanwhile, back-at-the-ranch ... our Loonie dipped Below 72US¢ 2day.
Not surprising, really.
- Dean
" Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! "
2:32 pm
September 29, 2017
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Which it seems to do a couple of times a year for the past few years, the last time in Aug.
2:48 pm
January 12, 2019
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.
Yup ➡ https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/markets/currencies/
.
- Dean
" Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! "
10:31 pm
September 29, 2017
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The Fed dropped rates 25 pts, exactly as expected and foreseen in the markets since late Sep.
BoC is likely to follow suite of the CDN market and drop another 25pts....there just needs to be a tiny bit more downward movement (2-3pts) to be certain. But there are still over 4 wks before that announcement, so still very highly likely to occur, given the strong market trend to date.
11:08 am
September 29, 2017
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ICYMI Unless there is a change in the market, a 25pt drop for BoC is baked in for Dec 11 as of about Nov 19/20, and a 25pt drop for the Fed is baked in for Dec 18, as of Nov 29.
9:46 am
September 29, 2017
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Well, today, the market positioned itself to give the BoC room to actually drop the bank rate up to 50 pts next week, in spite of the banks indicating there was no hurry to drop rates.
10:00 am
April 27, 2017
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Probability of BoC dropping by 0.5% has increased due to unexpected economic data on unemployment and the market is second guessing BoC’s move which is reflected in short term bond prices.
Here is the actual new information, not market pricing which is a reflection.
None of it gives anyone any edge to make more money because the whole world knows it.
5:33 pm
September 29, 2017
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Well that news is late to the game, as this strong trend was actually visible since the last BoC rate change, and was re-committed a week ago.
I did not mention it until it finally locked in in the market. So the market was ahead of the game... virtually always is. (Actually, it is just a continuation of a very strong downward trend since at least April. Recent data do not change that current momentum. The news is most often looking for an excuse to justify the market directions, but only after the fact.)
5:59 pm
November 19, 2022
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mordko said
Probability of BoC dropping by 0.5% has increased due to unexpected economic data on unemployment and the market is second guessing BoC’s move which is reflected in short term bond prices.Here is the actual new information, not market pricing which is a reflection.
None of it gives anyone any edge to make more money because the whole world knows it.
Food prices in Canada predicted to rise by 3%-5% in 2025, report says
https://torontosun.com/news/national/food-prices-in-canada-predicted-to-rise-by-3-5-in-2025-report-says
7:21 pm
September 29, 2017
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BTW, you said it,
mordko said
... the market is second guessing BoC’s move which is reflected in short term bond prices.
In other words, the market is leading 😉
Seems to always be the case.
7:37 pm
April 27, 2017
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Economic data are leading.
5:57 am
March 30, 2017
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Market participants look at economic data and then do an educated guess of what CB will do.
So if market = reg Joe who's earning and spending, then yes market leads.
Market participants (aka bond traders) just react to the economic data.
6:05 am
February 7, 2019
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savemoresaveoften said
Market participants look at economic data and then do an educated guess of what CB will do.
Then the CB does something, or not. Then the economy reacts accordingly and generates new economic data.
So, there is a little, or a lot, of what came first - the chicken or the egg ...
| CGO |
12:22 pm
September 29, 2017
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mordko said
Economic data are leading.
Yes, they read the data like everyone else, and the market reacts.
12:27 pm
September 29, 2017
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Bottom line is that the market reacts first, whatever the decision-making process, guessing, not guessing, reading tea-leaves, etc... what is most relevant is that you can see the market always reacts first. And the BoC follows... the charts show this time and time again...
Whatever is captured in the news is just an attempt to try to explain things... but after the fact. But following the news over the decades shows they most often have no clue, and cannot use that as a basis to understand the markets.
At the end of the day, what matters is what is actually transacted. Bid/Ask mean nothing until the actual price is struck. That is the reality. That is what the charts show. And they show the markets leading.
12:44 pm
February 7, 2019
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smayer97 said
But following the news over the decades shows they most often have no clue, and cannot use that as a basis to understand the markets.
I agree with that. They claim cause and effect on day 1 then reverse cause and effect on day 2. Etc. Quite comical...
| CGO |
6:33 am
December 7, 2011
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Winnie said
My prediction, that on Oct 23 BoC will reduce rate to 3.75% and another reduction to 3.25% will be on Dec 11.
BoC rate will drop 1% before end of the year.
Yes, I'm positive, that my earlier prediction on October 20, 2024 will become completely true and on December 11 BoC will reduce rate another 0.50% to 3.25%
Some people here completely disagree with me: bobwatford, mechone, for example.
In 48 hours and we will know the answer.
7:12 am
February 7, 2019
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Winnie said
Yes, I'm positive, that my earlier prediction on October 20, 2024 will become completely true and on December 11 BoC will reduce rate another 0.50% to 3.25%
Some people here completely disagree with me: bobwatford, mechone, for example.
In 48 hours and we will know the answer.
The slow economy and low inflation nowadays would indeed suggest a 0.5% reduction but with the Cdn $ performing so poorly I suspect a 0.25% maximum reduction.
| CGO |
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