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Bank of Canada Rate
October 26, 2025
7:19 pm
RetirEd
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Chickens are believed to have evolved from egg-laying dinosaurs.

RetirEd

October 27, 2025
5:36 pm
smayer97
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RetirEd said
Chickens are believed to have evolved from egg-laying dinosaurs.  

Does that really solve the question, or simply put of the same question? So which came first, the dino or the egg?

October 27, 2025
9:45 pm
Hmm
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I expect the BoC, under Carney’s influence, to lower rates further, reducing purchasing power for average Canadians as the Canadian peso is likely to drop, helping to offset the tariffs. I asked a friend why investors aren’t complaining. He replied that most have invested in U.S. stocks, ETFs, bonds, REITs, and crypto. A weaker Canadian peso doesn’t affect them much, so they don’t mind the drop. In fact, it gives them more opportunity to purchase real estate with lower mortgage rates.

October 27, 2025
11:36 pm
RetirEd
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smayer97: I think it reduces the question to one like the phone commercial asking, "Where is the pickle point?" At some point, modern scientists would have to say, "This is a chicken now!"

RetirEd

October 28, 2025
12:31 am
smayer97
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RetirEd said
smayer97: I think it reduces the question to one like the phone commercial asking, "Where is the pickle point?" At some point, modern scientists would have to say, "This is a chicken now!"  

But that's just another way of pushing off question, right?

Now, back to our main programming...

October 30, 2025
4:59 am
savemoresaveoften
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smayer97 said
Because of significant moves in the last week, the market has come very close to give room for a 25pt drop by the BoC, BUT not yet. So, unless the market falls below 2.25% (currently at 2.265%), BoC rate will NOT drop.

Though there are still 2 full trading days left for the market to move, and the rate change announcement typically happens in the morning (on 3rd upcoming trading day, Oct 29), even if there is enough of a market move below, I think it will become at best a 50/50 chance, simply because there is not enough time to have confidence the rate will stay below. Though based on the past, I'd say the BoC will hold for now, until things are more concrete.  

The bank has spoken, and it did NOT follow what the "market" tells it to do. Mkt did not price in 100% chance.

October 30, 2025
5:58 am
mordko
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Market did price in the drop by the time it actually happened but it wasn’t new information to anyone.

New information was BoC’s forward guidance that rate trimming cycle might be over. That was somewhat surprising and not priced in. We’ll see who is right over the next 12 months.

October 30, 2025
6:52 am
smayer97
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Actually, the market DID close the day before just below the 2.25% mark, enough for the BoC to be in lockstep.

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