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Email this7:03 am
January 25, 2024
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mordko said
Inflation has been stable for almost a year now,
Yeah, right.
Then why grocery prices are going up and up every week I go to get some?
8:07 am
April 6, 2013
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That's because inflation is not 1.9% for everything in the CPI.
Statistics Canada releases not only the overall 1.9% CPI number but also the individual components that make it up. See Consumer Price Index, August 2025.
Problem with the media is that they often don't or can't spend the time to go into all the data.
Food purchased from stores is up 3.5% overall. Beef is up 12.7%. Gasoline is down 12.7%.
8:08 am
February 7, 2019
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CAD said
mordko said
Inflation has been stable for almost a year now,Yeah, right.
Then why grocery prices are going up and up every week I go to get some?
Per StatsCan ...
12Mo Inflation Total 1.85%, Food 3.41%
YTD Inflation Total 2.22%, Food 4.61%
| CGO |
8:11 am
April 27, 2017
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CAD said
mordko said
Inflation has been stable for almost a year now,Yeah, right.
Then why grocery prices are going up and up every week I go to get some?
“Stable inflation” isn’t the same as “stable prices”.
My point is that the rate of inflation isn’t falling and dropping interest rates combined with increased government spending could reignite the fire.
8:20 am
February 7, 2019
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Central Banks aim to keep inflation not at 0 but in a range. Many Central Banks like ours aim for 2-3%.
0% inflation is bad news for any economy.
| CGO |
9:26 am
April 27, 2017
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cgouimet said
Central Banks aim to keep inflation not at 0 but in a range. Many Central Banks like ours aim for 2-3%..
Headline inflation: very close to the target midpoint of 2%, slightly below in recent months, but within the BoC’s target range (1-3%).
Core inflation: still above the 2% midpoint, hovering just above 3%, showing persistent underlying price pressures.
Based on this data alone dropping overnight rate seems quite risky. We’ll see.
1:33 pm
March 30, 2017
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smayer97 said
experience has been shown by many that the market moves precede any comments by the Feds
Market sees economic data, Fed sees economic data, market guesstimate what the Fed will do. They don't need the Fed to open its mouth.
If anything there is real evidence that Fed has access to economic data before the market. Fed not making any comment does not mean they don't know what's going on and have to follow the market. They don't sit in front of the TV or laptop waiting for the print...
I don't know about ur background but I can tell you that's how money market traders that sit on the big bank's trading floor operate.
2:38 pm
September 29, 2017
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That's right. I have never said otherwise. I have only said that markets lead on that data, and Feb follows... because they read the same data; point being, you don't have to wait for the Fed to know where rates are going.
3:30 am
September 29, 2017
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You can definitely expect the Fed to drop the rate by 25pts at the next meeting. (It was possible at the last meeting but the room was to recent to make that adjustment; now that it has been sustained, it is clear.)
No room for BoC yet. But there is still a week to go, so we shall see. My view is it is not likely at this point for the next meeting.
12:26 pm
December 7, 2011
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Bank of Canada rate will be 2.25% by the end of 2025, because 2.25% and 2025 both have 225, they look very similar, just joking))
Seriously, BoC will cut the rate by 25pts at the next meeting and it will be 2.25%, I think, but it has absolutely no connection to 2025 similar look.
2:49 am
September 29, 2017
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Because of significant moves in the last week, the market has come very close to give room for a 25pt drop by the BoC, BUT not yet. So, unless the market falls below 2.25% (currently at 2.265%), BoC rate will NOT drop.
Though there are still 2 full trading days left for the market to move, and the rate change announcement typically happens in the morning (on 3rd upcoming trading day, Oct 29), even if there is enough of a market move below, I think it will become at best a 50/50 chance, simply because there is not enough time to have confidence the rate will stay below. Though based on the past, I'd say the BoC will hold for now, until things are more concrete.
3:04 am
September 29, 2017
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cgouimet said
On a similar topic, perhaps as an interlude ...What came first? The chicken or the egg?
In looking back for something, I missed this beautiful interlude from back on Dec 12, 2024. So I thought I'd re-introduce it.
The correct answer is, the chicken. Now have at it 😉
6:51 am
November 19, 2022
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I can’t believe we are discussing 0.25% rate reduction. Lol
7:59 am
February 7, 2019
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smayer97 said
In looking back for something, I missed this beautiful interlude from back on Dec 12, 2024. So I thought I'd re-introduce it.
The correct answer is, the chicken. Now have at it 😉
If not from an egg, that first chicken came from a magician's black top hat?
If so, I wonder when magicians switched to rabbits ...
| CGO |
10:35 am
September 29, 2017
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cgouimet said
If not from an egg, that first chicken came from a magician's black top hat?
If so, I wonder when magicians switched to rabbits ...
Don't you know magicians aren't supposed to share their secrets?
And where did the egg come from?
I'm sure you can figure it out. 😉
10:38 am
September 29, 2017
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UkrainianDude said
I can’t believe we are discussing 0.25% rate reduction. Lol
Then why follow this thread? Most rate changes are typically in 25pts increments. Yet, it drives so much of our economy... hmmm
12:41 pm
January 12, 2019
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.
Good Question ⬆️, Smayer97❗
Meanwhile, back at the ranch ... next Wednesday (Oct. 29) will Tell.
- Dean
" Live Long, Healthy ... And Prosper! "
5:31 am
April 27, 2017
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Here is a good source which estimates odds of BoC cutting rates as 71% (https://bankofcanadaodds.com/#boc_meeting_dashboard)
They use the same methodology as bond traders to model the probability of BoC policy rate change.
Inputs into their model:
- Daily CORRA rates from the Bank of Canada
- CORRA futures prices on the Montréal Exchange
- Government bond yields & OIS rates
- Key macro indicators (CPI, GDP, employment)
5:52 am
March 30, 2017
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Just to add while the BoC publish and calculate the CORRA, its based on data (overnite repo activities) submitted by the banks on a daily basis.
And exactly as mordko said, the probability of rate change is a calculated %. So per Smayer97, if it's not priced in 100%, the BoC will stay put 100% of the time. This meeting will be interesting.
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